2014 Oscars Picks

For the third straight year, I watched all of the 9 best picture nominees, as well as a couple other nominees (this year only cinematography/sound mixing nom Inside Llewyn Davis and original score nom Saving Mr. Banks). Still, that means I saw all but three of the nominees for the big 8 awards (August Osage County with nominees Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts, Blue Jasmine with an original screenplay nomination to go with Cate Blanchett and Sally Hawkins, and adapted screenplay nominee Before Midnight). So to start with, here are my personal choices on the big eight awards, with those I did not see unranked.

Philomena (and from what I've heard, Before Midnight) are the more talk-y script-heavy movies, but 12 Years a Slave is the best written of the four I saw, fairly easily.

Her is the most original screenplay, and while that is not exactly what the award is for, it's clever and fun and I would like to see it get honored.

Hill and especially Cooper are not in the same class as the top three, and Leto is a bit overrated. Abdi is a revelation in his first film, but Fassbender is also excellent in 12 Years.

This is not really close. To me, Nyong'o is the emotional force in 12 Years, far beyond what Ejiofor does. Squibb is fun, but Margot Robbie does a better job in Wolf of Wall Street doing what Lawrence does in American Hustle.

Christian Bale being here is a joke. Bruce Dern should be in the supporting actor category; he was very good but Will Forte was the leading actor in Nebraska (and excellent in it). Ejiofor is solid, but it feels like there are many actors who could have been just as strong in that role. These are the defining roles of both McConaughey's and DiCaprio's career, and I just preferred McConaughey's performance.

The fact that the single biggest non-Blanchett reason that Sandra Bullock will not win an Oscar for Gravity is that she won for The Blind Side is incredibly silly. The performance Bullock gives, mostly alone, through Gravity is outstanding.

I do not know if it was a directorial or editorial problem, but both Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle seemed to drag on forever for me. Payne does a good job with Nebraska, but it does not hold a candle to the top two. As well made as 12 Years a Slave is, McQueen is stuck in the wrong year. Gravity is such an incredible directorial achievement that Cuaron is a lock here even for many who have 12 Years as the best picture.

I, however, do not have 12 Years as my best picture. I did not hate any of these movies, but I truly enjoyed the top seven here. Hustle is fun but meaningless, and Wolf of Wall Street could have been an hour shorter and still too long. Dallas Buyers Club has a tremendous performance but sort of a generic-Oscar bait story, and generic-Oscar bait is certainly a phrase that can be used for the sweet, and surprisingly funny Philomena. Movies 2 through 5 could be mixed in almost any order for me, but Captain Phillips stuck with me the most, while Her and Nebraska seemed like far more unique films than 12 Years. Gravity, however, is in a class of its own, a stunning technical, directorial, and acting experience. It was my clear number one.

That's who I like, but here is who I think will win in each category. Most of these I have no expertise, and I am following some combination of my preference, expert picks, and what seems the most Oscars-y. My best picture pick is so close, I flipped it several times before writing this, and I could switch several more times between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity before the ceremony tonight.

Moderately Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions

In 2012, I made what I called "completely baseless Oscar nomination predictions," having seen only 1 or 2 films in award consideration. Last year, I upped it to "somewhat baseless Oscar nomination predictions," having seen 5 films in consideration. This year I've seen six, so we're only bumping it slightly to moderately baseless. I'll predict the 5 nominees in each of the big 8 categories, plus 1 I'm guessing will probably get in instead of who I picked, and 1 I wish was in consideration. For Best Picture, I think there will be 9 nominees, but I will also list my guess for what the 10th would be if they go for the full 10. Nominees listed alphabetically. Here we go:

Original Screen Play

My Picks:
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewin Davis
Nebraska

Who I Probably Missed:
Dallas Buyer's Club

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Saving Mr. Banks

Adapted Screen Play

My Picks:
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave

Who I Probably Missed:
The Wolf of Wall Street

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
I haven't actually seen many films that fall in here, so I'll just say Lone Survivor for Peter Berg

Supporting Actress

My Picks:
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
 Who I Probably Missed:
June Squibb, Nebraska

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street

Supporting Actor

My Picks:
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club

Who I Probably Missed:
James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
George Clooney, Gravity

Actress

My Picks:
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Who I Probably Missed:
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Whichever of those 6 above doesn't make it. And, without seeing Enough Said, Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Actor

My Picks:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Who I Probably Missed:
Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Director

My Picks:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Who I Probably Missed:
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, This Is the End

Picture

My Picks:
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewin Davis
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

(Saving Mr. Banks)
Who I Probably Missed:
Blue Jasmine, The Butler, Nebraska, Philomena

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
This Is the End

2013 Oscar Predictions

Like last year, I saw all of the Academy Awards best picture nominees. I also saw a number of other movies, which left me missing only three of the films nominated in the big eight awards (Best Actress nominee Naomi Watts' The Impossible, Best Supporting Actress nominee Helen Hunt's The Sessions, and Best Writing- Original Screenplay nominee Moonrise Kingdom). To start off, here are my opinions on the nominees in each of those eight categories (when I didn't see the film, I did not rank the nominee).

Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Life of Pi are all directing achievements, and Silver Linings Playbook is all about the actors. Lincoln was not my favorite film, and it was certainly slow in spots, but it was also exceptionally well crafted by one of the greatest American writers alive.

This is a bit of a strange category- neither Flight or Moonrise Kingdom are Best Picture nominees, and neither Zero Dark Thirty or Amour are films that rely more on directing and acting than a great script. That leaves Django which is deserving of a few awards. This one may end up its best shot.

My number 1 director was Zero Dark Thirty's Kathryn Bigelow; she's not here. My number 2 director was Argo's Ben Affleck; he's not here. You could have presented me the category with Bigelow, Affleck, Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), and P.T. Anderson (The Master) and I'd be happy. Instead we have these five. None would be a terrible choice, but none are the best either. I went with Zeitlin who, in Beasts of the Southern Wild, directed a 6 year-old lead through a vast array of adventures.

This one is a runaway for Hathaway. There is a decent recent history for supporting actresses in musicals- Jennifer Hudson won for Dreamgirls in 2006 and Catherine Zeta-Jones won for Chicago in 2002, while Queen Latifah and Penelope Cruz also received nominations in this category for their musical work. The fact that Hathaway is only in a small portion of the film is an argument people make, but it's a silly one; Beatrice Straight won the supporting actress Oscar for Network in 1977 with a grand total of 5:40 in screen time. In years without this strong a candidate (like last year), Field and Adams would both be worthy winners. Weaver, on the other hand, had no place getting nominated. She wasn't bad in Silver Linings Playbook at all, just not memorable.

This is a fascinating category with, for the first time ever, all five nominees being former winners. Two of the nominees (Waltz in Django and Hoffman in The Master) are pretty close to being leads, while Arkin in Argo is close to being a cameo. I thought Waltz was the strongest, but I'd be pretty much okay with any of these winning.

I was pretty set with Silver Linings Playbook's Lawrence ahead of Amour's Riva for 2nd since watching Amour a couple weeks ago. While I think I liked Lawrence's performance a bit more, I think Riva's was probably objectively better. That said, neither of them hold a candle to Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty which was my favorite performance in a film in a long, long time.

This is another category where none of the nominees are weak, but Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln is great at a level that the others are not (and likely could never be; we're talking about Abraham Lincoln after all). That said, Washington carried Flight in a way that few actors could. And while I have Cooper at the bottom, he showed a side of himself, a side that included award discussion-worthy acting, in Silver Linings Playbook that I had never seen from him before. I assume it will carry over to The Hangover Part III.*

*I do not expect this to carry over to The Hangover Part III.

So I've gone over my feelings on all of these quite a bit on Twitter, so just some brief bullets:

-I've basically had Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty as 1 and 1a since seeing both and they're both movies I genuinely love. I went with ZDT as 1 just because I admit I have a pretty strong pro-Les Mis bias that would have made me love the film even if it was Rent quality (it isn't).

-All of my top 6 films would probably be in my top 2 (along with The Descendants) last year. I think Django is a great movie (and 45 more minutes of movie), but just not the same level as the five above it.

-I didn't dislike any of these movies. I don't feel the need to necessarily see any of my bottom 3 again, but none of them were difficult to get through in the way Tree of Life was. Man, Tree of Life was awful.

-Top 2 are a tier, Argo is a step below them, then a big gap, then the next 3, then another big gap and the last three.

-All 9 are impressive in their own ways, and I expect all 9 to walk away with at least one award tomorrow. Has that happened before?

So who do I THINK will win? Well here are my picks for who I want and who I predict, along with a slew of expert picks for the big 8 awards (click to see it larger):

And here are my (less educated) picks on the rest of the categories:

What do you think? Who do you pick?

Somewhat Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions

Last year, I made "Completely Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions." This year I've actually seen 5 of the likely nomination-heavy films, so they're not quite as baseless. So here we go. Again, there will be 5 nominees in each of the acting categories, and between 5 to 10 best picture nominees.

Supporting Actress

My Picks:
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Amy Adams, The Master
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Who I Probably Missed:
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Samantha Barks, Les Miserables


Supporting Actor

My Picks:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Who I Probably Missed:
Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Woody Harrelson, The Hunger Games


Best Actress

My Picks:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Who I Probably Missed:
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Who I Wish Had a Shot:

Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect

Best Actor

My Picks:
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight

Who I Probably Missed:
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Who I Wish Had a Shot:

Ben Affleck, Argo

Best Picture
(my guess is eight films are nominated, but I've put the next two I'd guess in parenthesis after those eight)

My Picks:
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
(Moonrise Kingdom)
(Skyfall)

Who I Probably Missed:
Amour and The Master

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
The Avengers

Oscars Predictions

First, the picks in the big 8 categories. The first line is who I would pick, the second is who I think will win, and following that are who several Oscars and movie experts think will win (not all of these experts have Screenplay picks on record:

Now my randomish picks for the other 16 categories:


Animated Feature Film- Rango
Art Direction- Hugo
Documentary Feature- Undefeated
Documentary Short Subject- Saving Face
Cinematography- War Horse
Costume Design- The Artist
Film Editing- Hugo
Foreign Language Film- A Separation
Makeup- The Iron Lady
Original Score- The Artist
Original Song- "Man or Muppet," The Muppets
Animated Short Film- Wild Life
Live Action Short Film- Raju
Sound Editing- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Sound Mixing- Hugo
Visual Effects- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Oscars Update 4

Here is the final version of the Best Picture scorecard. The preview post with picks and such is coming in a couple hours. First some thoughts on "War Horse" and "Hugo":


-"War Horse" was mediocre. Maybe I would have been more impressed if I hadn't seen it on Broadway, but this seemed basically the same level of quality at a much, much lower level of difficulty. I could see maybe a cinematography award, but not much more than that.
-"Hugo" was entertaining, but not much plot. I certainly enjoyed it, but I question if the exact same movie of the exact same quality would be up for awards if it was directed by Joe Smith instead of Martin Scorsese.


The scorecard:

Oscars Update 3

Here is my third Oscar movie update. The final one will be posted Sunday morning, followed by my picks. The remaining movies I have left are "War Horse" and "Hugo."


Some thoughts on the movies I watched last week:
- "The Help" is very well acted, but it drags. I'm also an Emma Stone fan, so I may have been a bit biased, but any movie that gets 3 female acting nominations and none are for Stone has to be pretty well acted.
-"The Tree of Life" is garbage. Just a waste of my afternoon. At different points in the movie I wasn't sure if Sean Penn was playing Brad Pitt's father, brother, or son. Also there were dinosaurs. Like Terra Nova, but less interesting.
-"Midnight in Paris" was fun. It's not a great movie, but it is an enjoyable one. In my mind, it was "Bill & Ted's Neurotic Adventure" for adults.


The scorecard:

Oscars Update 2

I've now seen 4 of the nominated movies, with 3 more coming this upcoming holiday weekend, and the final 2 on Oscar weekend. One thought on the film I watched this weekend: 


-While I thought Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was overly emotional- its not a 9/11 story, and if his father had died in a tragic car accident the story would be the same, but using 9/11 adds pre-cooked emotion to the story- I thought some of the acting- particularly the non-Oscar winners (yet) fantastic. Viola Davis, who I hadn't realized was in the film, was terrific, and Max von Sydow did better silent acting than anyone in The Artist.


Now, the chart:

My Oscars Scorecard

Over the next few weeks, I will be watching each of the nine Oscar nominated best pictures.* For each I will fill out the following rubric.


*except for Moneyball, which I saw in theaters when it came out.

Acting- Self explanatory. How good the acting is.

Production- All production aspects (special effects, music, etc.)

Script- How good the script is.

Oscarness- How well it fits into the type of movies the Oscars normally award.

Each will be graded out of 10. The 4 will be added up and have an overall score out of 40. 

So far:

I'll make a new post after I've seen a couple more movies.

Completely Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions

There's no reason to believe I would have any insight into the Oscar nominees. I haven't even seen most of these movies. But what the heck, right? There will be 5 nominees in each of the 4 acting categories, and between 5 and 10 in the Best Picture category. So here we go:


Supporting Actress


My Picks:
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
Shailene Woodle, "The Descendants"
Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"


Who I Probably Missed:
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"


Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Rose Byrne, "Bridesmaids"



Supporting Actor
My Picks:
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
Albert Brooks, "Drive"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Armie Hammer, "J. Edgar"


Who I Probably Missed:
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"


Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Alan Rickman, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2"


Best Actress


My Picks:
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn"
Tilda Swinton, "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"


Who I Probably Missed:
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"


Who I Wish Had a Shot:

Elizabeth Olsen, "Martha Marcy May Marlene"



Best Actor


My Picks:
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
Juan Dujuardin, "The Artist"
Michael Fassbender, "Shame"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "J. Edgar"


Who I Probably Missed:
Demian Bechir, "A Better Life"


Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "50/50"



Best Picture
(My guess is 7 films will be nominated, but I've put the next three I'd guess in parenthesis after those 7)



My Picks:
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"The Help"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Moneyball"
"Bridesmaids"
("My Week with Marilyn")
("Tree of Life")
("War Horse")


Who I Probably Missed:
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" and "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"


Who I Wish Had a Shot:
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2"

2011 Oscars Live Blog

4:55- These comments are going to be very occasional for a while, then pick up when the red carpet picks up in an hour or two. But we've gone to Giuliana on E! which means we're getting closer to the actual red carpet show, rather than the pre-red carpet show. But WTF is Giuliana wearing?

5:00- I don't care all that much about what dresses people are wearing, but Kelly Osbourne correctly predicted what Florence of Florence + the Machine would wear at the Grammys, so it'll be interesting if she could predict something. But nobody should try to predict what Helena Bonham Carter will wear. Ever.

5:03- Sorry, Giuliana, I don't think Natalie Portman is watching right now and asking for the dress you like.

5:07- Natalie Portman will probably win tonight, so let's have a fun look back at one of my favorite moments in the career of a fellow Long Island Jew:

5:23- I think E! is going through a long history of the careers of both Anne Hathaway and James Franco to show us that they both appeared in mediocre Steve Carell comedies.

5:25- Nope, it was to make Giuliana look like a fool when she forgot James Franco's name. So worth it.

5:42- Just thought I'd try something. Of the 20 Acting nominees, when was the last time none of them were nominated?

2009- Jeff Bridges, Colin Firth and Jeremy Renner

2008- Melissa Leo and Amy Adams

2007- Javier Bardem

2006- NONE. Just for fun, let's keep going.

2005- Amy Adams and Michelle Williams

2004- Natalie Portman

2003- NONE

2002- Nicole Kidman

2001- Nicole Kidman

2000- Javier Bardem, Geoffrey Rush, and Jeff Bridges

1999- Annette Bening

1998- Geoffrey Rush

1997- Helena Bonham Carter

1996- Geoffrey Rush

1995- NONE

That's quite a stretch for tonight's nominated actors and actresses.

5:50- By the way, if there is one quote I'll remember from any 2010 movie, it will be "Release the Kraken!" and I didn't see Clash of the Titans.

6:00- The pre-preshow is over. Let the preshow begin. Seacrest in!

6:03- I could definitely see myself spending the rest of my life with Jennifer Lawrence. Let's see how many others I say that about tonight.

6:08- I genuinely would not have recognized the boy from The Kids are All Right if I had seen him walking down the street.

6:13- You'd almost think it was Giuliana doing this interview with Melissa Leo with how bad it's going. C'mon Seacrest.

6:16- Armie Hammer reveals that originally they wanted to cast twins as the Winkelvoss twins, but they couldn't find a good set, so he got both roles. This is like the 4th red carpet interview I've seen with Armie Hammer the past 8 weeks, how have we never heard this before?

6:24- It is completely absurd that Hailee Steinfeld is nominated for best supporting actress instead of best actress, but it might give her a better chance to win.

6:26- E! Red Carpet hosts have an odd obsession with the previous nights SNL (see Eisenberg at the SAGs and Brand at the Grammys). Florence minus the Machine not best dressed tonight.

6:27- Mila Kunis is #2 on the Jennifer Lawrence list of people I want to marry. Also she apparently got her role in Black Swan based on her performance in Forgetting Sarah Marshall. Awesome.

6:32- Mandy Moore, Vincent Chase's ex, looks good, as always. Put her on the list. 3.

6:34- Giuliana can't do math. Not even math, just figuring out which is the bigger number.

6:36- Michelle Williams has opened up her drastic lead in career success for Dawson's Creek alum. Your move, Van Der Beek.

6:37- ABC's people are kinda creepy. It changes to a different Red Carpet show at 7, so we'll check back in there then.

6:40- Amy Adams, of Enchanted fame and at one point a recurring guest on The Office, seems very nervous and anxious despite this being her third nomination. It might be her best chance to win.

6:43- Mark Ruffalo just arrived. He's nominated for either his role in The Kids are All Right or being the inspiration for the animated short The Gruffalo. You decide.

6:50- Okay, I thought Mandy Moore looked good, but Giuliana and Kelly are going over the top. Also she looks kinda eerily like Anne Hathaway, no?

6:54- Apparently The King's Speech was going to be a play until Geoffrey Rush got involved. So way to go, Geoffrey Rush. You just screwed Colin Firth out of a Tony.

6:56- If Jennifer Hudson had shown that much cleavage on Idol, she wouldn't be considered the most robbed contestant in the show's history.

6:57- Good news guys. Giuliana could figure out that the 81% of viewers who voted for Natalie Portman was more than the 7% for Michelle Williams.

7:00- Kelly says Cate Blanchett pushes the envelope without going too far. Looking at this dress, I'm a little afraid at what too far would be.

7:01- Apparently Marissa Tomei wants to be more like Helena Bonham Carter.

7:04- Who thought it was a good idea to give Kelly Osbourne a telestrator? ABC now has Robin Roberts and Tim Gunn. Awesome.

7:06- I'm not a Maria Menounos fan, but her interview with Hailee Steinfeld was more interesting than any interview Seacrest has had all night.

7:07- Jesse Eisenberg doesn't own a tv, but he "loves watching [Robin Roberts] in person."

7:15- Jennifer Lawrence's nickname is Jeff Bridges. I'm gunna go with it's because she's an awesome bowler.

7:17- Random question- Why is Russell Brand at the Oscars?

7:19- PS22 is performing at the Oscars? Awesome. That's fantastic.

7:25- You're never going to believe this, but Helena Bonham Carter is in black.

7:28- Random thought- Javier Bardem kinda reminds me of my Rabbi.

7:34- Gwyneth Paltrow seems legitimately nervous about performing tonight. Guess that means she's not being joined by puppets?

7:37- It's hard for ScarJo to look bad, but I'm not crazy about her today.

7:41- Why is Matthew McConaughey here? When was he last relevent?

7:50- I'm pretty sure Mark Wahlberg just insulted costar Amy Adams.

7:54- This is a whole lot of red carpetting, so I apologize if my posts slow down over the next half hour.

7:57- Since it's the single most anticipated dress of the night, I'll put my two sense in- I think Natalie Portman looks fantastic.

8:00- Apparently the final half hour is ABC's exclusive domain.

8:02- In non-Oscars fashion, Clyde Frazier may have topped himself with a powder purple suit tonight.

8:07- There's a 10% chance that Anne Hathaway will be the sole host of the Oscars by 11pm. James Franco seems high as a kite.

8:14- Gwyneth Paltrow's dress may not be my favorite, but she seems more genuinely happy than I remember ever seeing her.

8:27- Tom Hanks will be presenting the first award tonight, which is traditionally Supporting Actress. The more you know.

8:30- And we're off. Rumor is we're starting with a Billy Crystal style montague with Hathaway and Franco inserted into movies from 2010. Right now it's just a montage of the nominated best pictures.

8:32- Ah here's the Crystal style montage. Starting with Incetion, where they decide they will enter Alec Baldwin's dreams for hosting secrets. Franco starts spinning a dreidel to see if it's still a dream. Social Network. The Fighter. True Grit. Now being narrated by Morgan Freeman. The King's Speech. Back to the Future? And we're off the screen and onto the stage.

8:41- This has been a great year for lesbians in films. It was funnier when Joel McHale talked about it last night. And now, Gone with the Wind.

8:43- And that is an awful transition into introducing Tom Hanks introducing Titanic...wait what?

8:45- Our first award is for Art Direction. Alice in Wonderland, HP7, Inception, King's Speech, True Grit. And the Oscar goes to Alice in Wonderland.

8:47- Cinematography- Black Swan, Inception, King's Speech, Social Network, True Grit (aka if the best picture nominees were still just 5). And the winner is Inception.

8:51- Kirk Douglas, who I believe is in his early-90s and may well be healthier than his son, is now on stage. He says James looks much better out of a cape, while Anne is gorgeous, and asks her where she was when he was making pictures. He's absolutely a legend, but this is tough to watch. Supporting Actress. The nominees- Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (King's Speech), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), and Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit). I picked Adams as my pick and Leo to win, and the Oscar goes to...wait first Douglas has to point out that Hugh Jackman is laughing. And the Oscar now goes to Melissa Leo.

9:00- Before Douglas can present her with the Oscar, he tells her that he thinks she's much pretties than she was in the movie. And we have our first bleep of the night.

9:05- Hathaway is cracking herself up now. Here to present, Mila Kunis and Justin Timberlake. JT reveals that he is Banksy, which Kunis denies. Animated Short. Day and Night, The Gruffalo, Let's Polute, The Lost Thing, Madagascar: A Journey Diary. This is the first time I've ever seen an animated short nominee, as Day and Night was shown before TS3 in theaters. But the winner is The Lost Thing.

9:08- Now for animated feature. The nominees How to Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, Toy Story 3. I picked TS3 as my pick and to win. And the Oscar goes to Toy Story 3. A very sweet end to a series, winning an award that was not around for the first two films.

9:13- It appears we already have gotten rid of James Franco, as Anne Hathaway reminisces about the 1st Oscars. And now, Josh Brolin and Javier Bardem, in matching white dinner jackets. Adapted Screenplay. 127 Hours, Social Network, TS3, True Grit, Winter's Bone. I picked Sorkin (Social Network) as my pick and to win, and the Oscar goes to Aaron Sorkin. May the West Wing rejoice.

9:16- Okay Sorkin goes as long as you would expect Sorkin to go. But thanking Armie Hammer twice is funny. Original Screenplay- Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids are Alright, The King's Speech. I picked Seidler (King's Speech) as my pick and to win, and the Oscar goes to David Seidler. I don't want to rub it in, but I'm 4/4 tonight.

9:20- Seidler is quite amusing and charming, isn't he? Quite a nice speech.

9:23- Hathway was going to do a duet. But whoever she was going to sing with quit on her. So she's singing Les Mis' On My Own, about Hugh Jackman, who had brought her on stage to sing with him when he hosted 2 years ago. And here's James Franco in drag, with our first Charlie Sheen joke. And here are Russell Brand and Helen Mirren. I hope to present The King's Speech. No, it's for Foreign Language Film. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, and Outside the Law. And the Oscar goes to In a Better World.

9:31- Academy Award Winning Actress Reese Witherspoon here to present supporting actor. Christian Bale (The Fighter), John Hawks (Winter's Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right), and Geoffrey Rush (King's Speech). I picked Rush as my pick and Bale to win, and the Oscar goes to Christian Bale. It was a truly terrific performance. On to The Dark Knight Rises. Bale doesn't drop the F-bomb like Leo because he's done that before, citing his on-set rant from a few years back.

9:40- Everyone's favorite part of the ceremony, the president of the academy, and someone from ABC/Disney. Brief.

9:42- Aussies Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman on stage to present a history of sound with film. And now the orchestra will play some of your favorite film themes. Nominees for original score- How to Train Your Dragon, The King's Speech, Social Network, 127 Hours, Inception. The Oscar goes to The Social Network.

9:48- ScarJo and Matt McConaughey presenting sound mixing, or just saying sound over and over. The nominees- Inception, King's Speech, Salt, Social Network, and True Grit. And the Oscar goes to Inception.

9:50- ScarJo and MattMac (idk) for sound editing- Inception, TS3, TRON: Legacy, True Grit, and Unstoppable. And the Oscar goes to Inception.

9:55- Our next presenter is Marissa Tomei, the person everyone always forgets won an Oscar (for My Cousin Vinnie). She's telling us about the Scientific and Technology Awards. I'm going to let you read up on the winners of this if you so desire.

9:57- Now presenting, Oscar Winning Actress Cate Blanchett, for makeup. Nominees- Barney's Version, The Way Back, and The Wolfman. And the winner is The Wolfman. I bet if you saw that in theaters, you left saying "now that was an Academy Award winning film."

10:00- Blanchett will stick with us and present best costumes. The nominees are Alice in Wonderland, I Am Love, The King's Speech, The Tempest, and True Grit. And the Oscar goes to  Alice in Wonderland.

10:01- A look back at some of the classic Best Original Songs, including Obama's favorite "As Time Goes By," "Beauty and the Beast," and "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp." And Kevin Spacey is presenting our nominees. First, Randy Newman and his song from TS3.

10:04- From Tangled, Mandy Moore and Zachary Levi. And a commercial break before the next two. 

10:15- Here are Amy Adams and Jake Gyllenhaal. Gyllenhaal refers to short films as the hardest part to pick on your Oscar prediction pool. We're doing documentary shorts, and the Oscar goes to Strangers No More.

10:17- And now live action short, and the Oscar goes to God of Love.

10:18- Franco informs us this is the year of the movie musical, showing us auto-tuned scenes from random films. Quite amusing.

10:20- And here's our next presenter, an up-and-coming television personality named Oprah Winfrey, presenting outstanding documentary. The nominees are Exit Through the Gift Shop, GasLand, Inside Job, Restrepo, and Waste Land. And the Oscar goes to Inside Job. Damn, now we'll never know who Banksy is.

10:26- And here is legendary Oscar host Billy Crystal. Not holding an envelope, so this could be time waster. Talking about Bob Hope.

10:32- We now have Jude Law and Robert Downey Jr, with the nominees for visual effects. Alice in Wonderland, HP7, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. And the Oscar goes to Inception. They certainly are winning a lot tonight.

10:35- Sorry, I missed the nominees for film editing, due to the Knicks game, but the Oscar goes to The Social Network.

10:41- Well at least James Franco is cracking Anne Hathaway up. Academy Award Winner, and American Idol 7th Place Finisher (that might be wrong) Jennifer Hudson introducing the last two nominated songs. Florence of Florence + the Machine filling in for Dido in a song from 127 Hours.

KNICKS WIN!!!

10:45- And Gwyneth Paltrow concludes our musical portion of the show with a nominated song from Country Strong. Her Grammy performance was more entertaining.

10:47- And Hudson presents the Original Song Oscar to We Belong Together by Randy Newman from Toy Story 3. He's been nominated a lot. But he's only won twice now. An amusing speech.

10:48- The In Memoriam tribute is coming up. Who do you have as the hammer? I'm taking Dennis Hopper.

10:51- That Modern Family promo was funnier than any episode this season.

10:55- And here's Celine Dion singing the classic "Smile" as we look back at those we lost this year, ending with Lena Horne, who I knew was going to be the hammer and then bet against it. And now Halle Berry does a tribute for Horne.

11:02- There are only four awards left, and they're the big four. Here's Hillary Swank to welcome Catherine Bigelow to present best direct. Darren Aronofsky, David O. Russell, Tom Hooper, David Fincher, Coen Bros. I have Fincher as my pick and to win, but the Oscar goes to Tom Hooper for The King's Speech. That's an upset, and it should mean there is no question that The King's Speech will win best picture.

11:07- Here's Annette Bening, talking about lifetime achievement award winners.

11:12- And here's the defending Best Actor, Jeff Bridges, presenting Best Actress. Bridges is talking to them each personally. Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine). I picked Portman as my choice and to win, and the Oscar goes to Natalie Portman. Hooray Long Island Jews!

11:25- Anne Hathaway gives a shoutout to Oscar drinking games! And here's last year's Best Actress, Sandra Bullock, presenting Best Actor. Geez has her life changed since she won. Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King's Speech, and James Franco (127 Hours). Does Franco go like Hugh Jackman at the Tony's and host and win (The Boy from Oz) or NPH at the Emmy's and host and lose (HIMYM)? I have Firth as my choice and to win, and the Oscar goes to Colin Firth.

11:36- And now, Best Picture, presented by Hollywood Legend, Steven Speilberg. The nominees: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter's Bone. This was an awesome way to introduce the nominees, but it's obviously King's Speech-centric. My favorite was The King's Speech, and it is my pick to win. And the 2011 Academy Award for Best Picture goes to The King's Speech.

11:40- But we're not done yet, here's a closing song from the famous PS22 chorus, with "Somewhere Over the Rainbow," joined on stage by all of tonight's winners. It is at this point where I must remind you that The Wizard of Oz lost in the Best Picture category, although it is hard to argue with Gone with the Wind. Thanks for following the live blog. Have a good night.