Monday, January 13, 2014

Moderately Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions

In 2012, I made what I called "completely baseless Oscar nomination predictions," having seen only 1 or 2 films in award consideration. Last year, I upped it to "somewhat baseless Oscar nomination predictions," having seen 5 films in consideration. This year I've seen six, so we're only bumping it slightly to moderately baseless. I'll predict the 5 nominees in each of the big 8 categories, plus 1 I'm guessing will probably get in instead of who I picked, and 1 I wish was in consideration. For Best Picture, I think there will be 9 nominees, but I will also list my guess for what the 10th would be if they go for the full 10. Nominees listed alphabetically. Here we go:

Original Screen Play

My Picks:
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewin Davis
Nebraska

Who I Probably Missed:
Dallas Buyer's Club

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Saving Mr. Banks

Adapted Screen Play

My Picks:
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave

Who I Probably Missed:
The Wolf of Wall Street

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
I haven't actually seen many films that fall in here, so I'll just say Lone Survivor for Peter Berg

Supporting Actress

My Picks:
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
 Who I Probably Missed:
June Squibb, Nebraska

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street

Supporting Actor

My Picks:
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club

Who I Probably Missed:
James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
George Clooney, Gravity

Actress

My Picks:
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Who I Probably Missed:
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Whichever of those 6 above doesn't make it. And, without seeing Enough Said, Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Actor

My Picks:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Who I Probably Missed:
Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Director

My Picks:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Who I Probably Missed:
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, This Is the End

Picture

My Picks:
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewin Davis
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

(Saving Mr. Banks)
Who I Probably Missed:
Blue Jasmine, The Butler, Nebraska, Philomena

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
This Is the End

Sunday, January 12, 2014

2014 Golden Globes Predictions

My Golden Globes picks for tonight are in bold. Links are from Wikipedia. Apologies to song, score, animated, and foreign film.

Best Motion Picture
DramaMusical or Comedy
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama
ActorActress
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
ActorActress
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama, Musical or Comedy
Supporting ActorSupporting Actress
Best DirectorBest Screenplay
Best Series
DramaMusical or Comedy
Best Performance in a Television Series – Drama
ActorActress
Best Performance in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
ActorActress
Best Performance in a Miniseries or Television Film
ActorActress
Best Supporting Performance in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film
Supporting ActorSupporting Actress
Best Miniseries or Television Film