Somewhat Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions

Last year, I made "Completely Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions." This year I've actually seen 5 of the likely nomination-heavy films, so they're not quite as baseless. So here we go. Again, there will be 5 nominees in each of the acting categories, and between 5 to 10 best picture nominees.

Supporting Actress

My Picks:
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Amy Adams, The Master
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Who I Probably Missed:
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Samantha Barks, Les Miserables


Supporting Actor

My Picks:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Who I Probably Missed:
Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Woody Harrelson, The Hunger Games


Best Actress

My Picks:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Who I Probably Missed:
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Who I Wish Had a Shot:

Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect

Best Actor

My Picks:
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight

Who I Probably Missed:
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Who I Wish Had a Shot:

Ben Affleck, Argo

Best Picture
(my guess is eight films are nominated, but I've put the next two I'd guess in parenthesis after those eight)

My Picks:
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
(Moonrise Kingdom)
(Skyfall)

Who I Probably Missed:
Amour and The Master

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
The Avengers