My Emmy Predictions

The 62nd Primetime Emmy Awards are tomorrow, so here are my predictions and commentary for each award:


The Award:
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

The Nominees:
-Breaking Bad (AMC)
-Dexter (Showtime)
-The Good Wife (CBS)
-Lost (ABC)
-Mad Men (AMC)
-True Blood (HBO)


The Defending Champion:
Mad Men


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Lost
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Mad Men
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- True Blood
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Mad Men
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- The Good Wife


My Pick:
Mad Men. It's just hard to see the critics not giving it the threepeat. The emotional pull for Lost won't be enough.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
I admit I don't watch many dramas, but with 2 stars nominated, you would think NBC's Friday Night Lights also deserves an Outstanding Series nod.


The Award:

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

The Nominees:
-30 Rock (NBC)
-Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
-Glee (Fox)
-Modern Family (ABC)
-Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
-The Office (NBC)


The Defending Champion:
30 Rock


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Modern Family
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Modern Family
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Glee
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Modern Family
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Modern Family


My Pick:
Modern Family. The last time an hour long series has won the Comedy Emmy was Ally McBeal in 1999. As good as Glee is, I don't see it happening again this year.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
It is rare one of the best written comedies is also the best rated. The Academy seems to have something against CBS's The Big Bang Theory, but I'm not sure what.


The Award:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

The Nominees:
-Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights (NBC)
-Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
-Matthew Fox, Lost
-Michael C. Hall, Dexter
-Jon Hamm, Mad Men
-Hugh Laurie, House (Fox)


The Defending Champion:
Cranston


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Chandler
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Cranston/Chandler
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Chandler/Fox
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Hall
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Chandler


My Pick:
Cranston. This is one of the hardest to call. Sentimental value should be towards Fox and the now completed Lost. Cranston is a two time defending champion. Chandler has long been considered a snub. It could go either of those ways, but again I sense when the competition is too close to call, the voters go with the status quo.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
The Mentalist's Simon Baker (CBS) seems to have gone from beloved to forgotten in the course of one year.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES


The Nominees:
-Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
-Glenn Close, Damages (FX)
-Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order:SVU (NBC)
-January Jones, Mad Men

-Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

-Kyra Sedgewick, The Closer (TNT)

The Defending Champion:

Close


The Expert Opinion:

Ken Tucker (EW)- Margulies

Michael Ausiello (EW)- Margulies
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Margulies
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Margulies
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Margulies


My Pick:
Margulies. The consensus above exists for a reason. She carried the top new drama and will win.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Again, I don't watch, but the Academy seemingly forgot despite its cancellation that TNT's Saving Grace and Holly Hunter did have a 2009-10 season.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

The Nominees:
-Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
-Steve Carrell, The Office
-Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
-Matthew Morrison, Glee
-Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
-Tony Shalhoub, Monk (USA)

The Defending Champion:
Baldwin


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Parsons
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Parsons
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Parsons
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Shalhoub
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Parsons


My Pick:
Parsons. Who knew that Monk was still on? Shalhoub has won three times for his title role, and a victory for the final season is certainly possible, but he is not the most deserving. Nor is 2-time defending winner Baldwin. Parsons' Sheldon is perhaps the most interesting character on television, and Parsons captures him perfectly. The fact that he doesn't have one or two of these yet is criminal.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Hopefully Community's Joel McHale (NBC) will replace Shalhoub on this list for many years to come.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES


The Nominees:
-Toni Collette, United States of Tara (Showtime)
-Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
-Tina Fey, 30 Rock
-Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine (CBS)

-Lea Michele, Glee

-Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (NBC)

 The Defending Champion:
Collette


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Falco
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Falco
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Michele
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Falco
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Poehler


My Pick:
Michele. Honestly, any of these six could win and it wouldn't shock me. Collette, as the defending champ, clearly is liked by the academy. Similarly, Fey won in 2008 and Louis-Dreyfus in 2006. Falco won for drama for The Sopranos on multiple occasions, but there are questions about how much of a comedy Nurse Jackie is. Poehler gave perhaps the best performance of any of these actresses this season. But, for at least the first half of the season and much of the second, carried the most buzzed about TV series on her shoulders. This could at least make up for her 2007 Tony Award non-nomination snub for Spring Awakening.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Courtney Cox carried ABC's Cougar Town until it found what it was meant to be.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES


The Nominees:
-Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age (TNT)
-Michael Emerson, Lost
-Terry O'Quinn, Lost
-Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
-Martin Short, Damages

-John Slattery, Mad Men

The Defending Champion:

Emerson

The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Braugher
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Paul
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- O'Quinn


My Pick:
O'Quinn. I've never seen any of these shows, so I'm giving Lost the emotional sentiment here. I picked O'Quinn over Emerson, since I know that O'Quinn's characters played a significant role in the final season.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Would've been nice to see The Good Wife's Josh Charles get a nod.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

The Nominees:
-Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
-Rose Byrne, Damages
-Sharon Gless, Burn Notice (USA)
-Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
-Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
-Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife


The Defending Champion:
Cherry Jones, 24 (Fox)


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Hendricks
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Hendricks
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Hendricks


My Pick:
Hendricks. This has been a breakout year for Hendricks, and an Emmy would be a great highlight.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
There should always be a spot on this list of nominations for Grey's Anatomy's Chandra Wilson (ABC), who provided unbelievable work throughout the season, but particularly in the otherwise overdramatic season finale.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

The Nominees:
-Ty Burrell, Modern Family
-Chris Colfer, Glee
-Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (CBS)
-Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
-Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother (CBS)
-Eric Stonestreet, Modern FamilyThe Defending Champion:
Cryer


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Burrell
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Burrell

Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Colfer

My Pick:

Jeremy Piven, Entourage (HBO). No, seriously, Harris. After years of deserving to win and failing to do so, NPH finally gets his statue (actually his 2nd, he won for his guest appearance on Glee last week) in a year he is not the most deserving nominee. No, that would be Burrell, the highlight of most Modern Family episodes. But he could very easily split votes with his 2 conominated costars, leaving Harris with a victory that can only be considered legen-

Wait for it.*

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Ed O'Neill is the obvious snub with all his adult costars getting nods, but Community's Danny Pudi and 30 Rock's Jack McBrayer are possibly the funniest characters on TV.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING SUPPOTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

The Nominees:
-Julie Bowen, Modern Family
-Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
-Jane Lynch, Glee
-Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men
-Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
-Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (SNL)


The Defending Champion:
Kristin Chenoweth, Pushing Daisies (ABC)


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Lynch
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Lynch
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Lynch

My Pick:
Lynch. She was TV's breakout star this year, but this should only be the first of many Emmy wins.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Park and Recreation's Rashida Jones will easily be here in the future, if her storyline with Rob Lowe is anywhere near as good as it can be.

The Other Awards:

Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series: If The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien does not win, it will be almost as bad as that time Jay Leno screwed him out of hosting The Tonight Show.

Outstanding Reality Competition Program: The Amazing Race has won every year in the history of this award. Unless there is a strong sentiment in Hollywood for Simon Cowell (and I don't think there is), the streak will continue.

*dary. Legendary.