Friday, August 27, 2010

How I'd Fix the Mets

Fun Fact #18- In my 22 years of life, the 4 major sport teams I root for- the Jets, Mets, Islanders, and Knicks, have won a grand total of 0 championships.

Fun Fact #19- Had I been a Giants, Yankees, and Rangers fan, my championships-in-lifetime total would be 8.

Despite this constant debilitating disappointment, I continue to have hope, which in turn only leads to more severe disappointment.

And because of that, I, like every fan, have my own theories of how to fix my team.

Below, how I would rebuild the 2011 Mets. With help from Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Let's start with the assumption the Mets payroll in 2011 will be the same as the 2010 payroll, give or take $5 million. The 2010 payroll is about $126.5 million, so we'll give them $131.5 million for 2011.

Here's who is under contract for 2011:
1. Johan Santana- $22.5mil
2. Carlos Beltran- $18.5mil
3. Oliver Perez- $12mil
4. Francisco Rodriguez- $11.5mil
5. David Wright- $14mil
6. Jason Bay- $16mil
7. Luis Castillo- $6mil
8. Ryoto Igarashi- $1.75mil

This totals to $102.25, leaving the team $29.25mil to spend.
They owe $1mil to Gary Matthews Jr, knocking it down to $28.25mil.

Jose Reyes has an $11mil option. Either the Mets will pick it up or give him a long term deal, but either way this is likely to be the salary they pay him next year. This brings it down to $18.25mil.

Mike Pelfrey is set for arbitration for the first time this season. After making $3mil off his rookie contract in 2009, he made $500,000 this season. I would expect that salary to go back up to about $3mil, so we're down to $15.25mil.

Angel Pagan and R.A. Dickey are arbitration eligible as well. Pagan is making $1.45mil this season. With his big year, I think that could go up to over $4mil. Dickey is making about $700,000, and will likely get bumped to $1.5 due to his poor numbers before this season. We're down to $9.5mil.

Jeff Francoeur, John Maine, and Sean Green are abrbitration eligible, but should be nontendered. Green may be brought back on a minor league contract, but this will not affect the payroll.

With $122mil in the books, this is what the roster looks like:

SP1- Johan Santana
SP2- Mike Pelfrey
SP3- RA Dickey
SP4-
SP5-
RP- Francisco Rodriguez
RP- Ryoto Igarashi
RP- Oliver Perez
RP-
RP-
RP-
RP-
C-
1B-
2B- Luis Castillo
3B- David Wright
SS- Jose Reyes
LF- Jason Bay
CF- Carlos Beltran
RF- Angel Pagan
C-
IF-
IF-
OF-
OF-

Of course the bench spots are not set in stone, teams carry between 11-13 pitchers, and 2-3 backup IF and OF.

Next are the players signed for the major league minimum who will make the team next year:
-Jon Niese
-Ike Davis
-Josh Thole
-Ruben Tejada
-Fernando Martinez
-Bobby Parnell
Six players at $400,000 for the year adds to $2.4mil.

Now, with $7.1mil to go, the roster looks like this:
SP1- Johan Santana
SP2- Mike Pelfrey
SP3- RA Dickey
SP4- Jon Niese
SP5-
RP- Francisco Rodriguez
RP- Ryoto Igarashi
RP- Oliver Perez
RP- Bobby Parnell
RP-
RP-
RP-
C- Josh Thole
1B- Ike Davis
2B- Ruben Tejada
3B- David Wright
SS- Jose Reyes
LF- Jason Bay
CF- Carlos Beltran
RF- Angel Pagan
C-
IF- Luis Castillo
IF-
OF- Fernando Martinez
OF-

Jenrry Mejia will likely make his play for the #5 starting spot in September. If he pitches well, he could earn that spot, or at least a strong chance in Spring Training. He would earn the minimum, leaving up with $6.6mil. Resigning Henry Blanco to back up Thole and catch Santana may be a good idea. With bonuses he will make about $1mil this season, and probably would accept a similar amount for next year. Hisanori Takahashi has pitched well this season, and likely earned a spot in the bullpen for close to the $1mil he made this year. Similarly, Manny Acosta and Pat Misch have pitched well enough that they could compete for a spot in the bullpen, earning the $400,000 minimum. Daniel Murphy and Mike Hessman can compete for the corner infield spot off the bench, and the same can be said about Chris "The Animal" Carter, Nick Evans, and Jesus Feliciano. This is another $800,000 for those two. Altogether, another $3.6mil.

With $3.5mil left, the roster looks like this:

SP1- Johan Santana
SP2- Mike Pelfrey
SP3- RA Dickey
SP4- Jon Niese
SP5- Jenrry Mejia
RP- Francisco Rodriguez
RP- Ryoto Igarashi
RP- Oliver Perez
RP- Bobby Parnell
RP- Hisanori Takahashi
RP- Pat Misch/Manny Acosta
RP-
C- Josh Thole
1B- Ike Davis
2B- Ruben Tejada
3B- David Wright
SS- Jose Reyes
LF- Jason Bay
CF- Carlos Beltran
RF- Angel Pagan
C- Henry Blanco
IF- Luis Castillo
IF- Dan Murphy/Mike Hessman
OF- Fernando Martinez
OF- Nick Evans/Chris Carter/Jesus Feliciano

Pedro Feliciano earned $2.9mil this season. He is a free agent this season. A three year, $10mil contract would not be extreme. Bringing back Feliciano for when this team does contend (hopefully 2012) would be wise- he is arguably the best left handed specialist in baseball over the past few years. If Feliciano cannot be resigned, signing a similar reliever off the free agent market would fill the same spot, possibly for less money.

I would be in favor of giving an incentive laden contract- say $1mil or less plus obtainable bonuses- to a pitcher like Brandon Webb, Vincente Padilla, or Jeff Suppan- if the team is willing to increase the payroll. This would provide depth beyond unproven Dillon Gee and Brad Holt.

The team could release Perez and have both Misch and Acosta (or another RP from the minors) on the roster. Same stands for Luis Castillo, and the team could sign Aaron Miles or Akinori Iwamora to a minimum contract.

The key is the financial freedom for 2012. Assuming KRod's option does not vest (which could occur if the Mets doctors fail him on a physical or he fails to reach games finished incentives), the team would have about $60mil coming off the books, with only the need to resign Reyes, sign a closer (or a lockdown 8th inning guy if Parnell looks like he can be the closer), and replace Beltran (hopefully with Martinez), Perez, Castillo, and Igarashi.

Two more changes go without saying. Reassign GM Omar Minaya to head of the scouting/Dominican Republic training field, and fire Manager Jerry Manuel and most of the coaching staff.*

*Namely, I would fire Manuel, Pitching Coach Dan Warthen, 1B Coach Razor Shines, and Bench Coach Dave Jauss. I am completely apathetic to the role of bullpen coach, and Randy Niemann has been with the team long enough that I trust he belongs. Hitting Coach Howard Johnson should be reassigned to being a roving hitting instructor. He belongs with the franchise, but he has failed as a major league hitting coach. 3B Coach Chip Hale has a good reputation and does a good job, and the Mets have had trouble finding a good 3B coach, so I'm all for keeping him around.

This is what I would have the front office and coaching staff look like for 2011:

GM- John Ricco
Vice President of Baseball Operations- Josh Byrnes
Vice President of Player Development and Scouting- Omar Minaya

Manager- Larry Bowa
Bench Coach- Wally Backman
Hitting Coach- Don Mattingly
Pitching Coach- Joe Kerrigan
1B Coach- Mookie Wilson
3B Coach- Chip Hale
Bullpen Coach- Randy Niemann

I think Joe Torre is done managing the Dodgers. I also think Bowa and Mattingly will not be chosen to manage the Dodgers. Bowa is the personality at manager the Mets need, a direct contrast to the more soft-spoken Manuel and Willie Randolph. He also will probably only manage for 2-3 years, so Backman and Mattingly will have the opportunity to compete to be his successor. Kerrigan has been a successful pitching coach for a long time, and Mookie, a fan favorite, harkins back not only to their 1986 win, but the more enjoyable 1990s teams for which he was also 1B coach. Byrnes did a very good job in Arizona, and can help being another strong voice in the front office, while still getting paid much of his salary by the Diamondbacks.

My plan isn't perfect. But it can't be worse than the last 22 years.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Got something to add? Anything? Come on. You must have something to say.