Sunday, February 27, 2011

2011 Oscars Predictions

The 83rd Academy Awards are tonight. We will have a live blog tonight starting at some point during the Red Carpet coverage. Here are some award predictions:

BEST PICTURE
Nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Who I Think Should Win:
I've seen six of the ten (Fighter, Inception, Kids are All Right, King's Speech, Social Network, and TS3) and two films stood out well above the rest- King's Speech and Social Network. To me, King's Speech was just a step above the rest.

Who I Think Will Win:
The King's Speech

Picks by Others:
Guestblogger Brett Alazraki- The King's Speech
Chicago Sun-Times' Roger Ebert- The King's Speech
Chicago Sun-Times' Richard Roeper- The Social Network
Movieline's Elvis Mitchell- The King's Speech
Rolling Stone's Peter Travers- The Social Network
New York Times' Melena Ryzik- The King's Speech
Village Voice's Michael Musto- The King's Speech
Deadline's Pete Hammond- The King's Speech
Hitfix's Gregory Ellwood- The King's Speech
E!'s Ben Lyons- The King's Speech
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver- The King's Speech
Sesame Street's Oscar the Grouch- 127 Hours

BEST ACTOR
Nominees:
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)

Who I Think Should Win:
Colin Firth, and it isn't close.

Who I Think Will Win:
Colin Firth.

Picks by Others:
Guestblogger Brett Alazraki- Colin Firth
Chicago Sun-Times' Roger Ebert- Colin Firth
Chicago Sun-Times' Richard Roeper- Colin Firth
Movieline's Elvis Mitchell- Colin Firth
Rolling Stone's Peter Travers- Colin Firth
New York Times' Melena Ryzik- Colin Firth
Village Voice's Michael Musto- Colin Firth
Deadline's Pete Hammond- Colin Firth
Hitfix's Gregory Ellwood- Colin Firth
E!'s Ben Lyons- Colin Firth
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver- Colin Firth
Sesame Street's Oscar the Grouch- Colin "Filth"

BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:
Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Who I Think Should Win:
I don't get why Bening is nominated and co-star Julianne Moore isn't. To me, Moore was better. I didn't see Black Swan, but from what I've heard, Portman owns it. I'll go with her.

Who I Think Will Win:
Natalie Portman.

Picks by Others:
Guestblogger Brett Alazraki- Natalie Portman
Chicago Sun-Times' Roger Ebert- Natalie Portman
Chicago Sun-Times' Richard Roeper- Natalie Portman
Movieline's Elvis Mitchell- Natalie Portman
Rolling Stone's Peter Travers- Annette Bening
New York Times' Melena Ryzik- Natalie Portman
Village Voice's Michael Musto- Natalie Portman
Deadline's Pete Hammond- Annette Bening
Hitfix's Gregory Ellwood- Natalie Portman
E!'s Ben Lyons- Natalie Portman
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver- Natalie Portman
Sesame Street's Oscar the Grouch- Nicole Kidman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Who I Think Should Win:
I've gone back and forth on this since watching The Fighter last night. My initial thought had been Geoffrey Rush, who I thought was fantastic in The King's Speech. But Christian Bale was just as astounding in The Fighter. But at the end of the day, I'm going with Rush.

Who I Think Will Win:
Christian Bale.

Picks by Others:
Guestblogger Brett Alazraki- Christian Bale
Chicago Sun-Times' Roger Ebert- Geoffrey Rush
Chicago Sun-Times' Richard Roeper- Christian Bale
Movieline's Elvis Mitchell- Christian Bale
Rolling Stone's Peter Travers- Christian Bale
New York Times' Melena Ryzik- Christian Bale
Village Voice's Michael Musto- Christian Bale
Deadline's Pete Hammond- Christian Bale
Hitfix's Gregory Ellwood- Christian Bale
E!'s Ben Lyons- Christian Bale
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver- Geoffrey Rush
Sesame Street's Oscar the Grouch- Christian Bale

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Who I Think Should Win:
Like with Bening and Moore in The Kids are All Right, I don't fully understand why Melissa Leo's performance is considered much stronger than Amy Adams. I preferred Adams. Steinfeld should be a leading actress. Carter was superb, but it was a minimal part. I'd like to see Adams get the upset.

Who I Think Will Win:
Melissa Leo.

Picks by Others:
Guestblogger Brett Alazraki- Helena Bonham Carter
Chicago Sun-Times' Roger Ebert- Hailee Steinfeld
Chicago Sun-Times' Richard Roeper- Melissa Leo
Movieline's Elvis Mitchell- Melissa Leo
Rolling Stone's Peter Travers- Melissa Leo
New York Times' Melena Ryzik- Melissa Leo
Village Voice's Michael Musto- Melissa Leo
Deadline's Pete Hammond- Melissa Leo
Hitfix's Gregory Ellwood- Hailee Steinfeld
E!'s Ben Lyons- Melissa Leo
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver- Melissa Leo

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees:
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Ethan and Joel Coen (True Grit)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Who I Think Should Win:
I have to imagine directing an Aaron Sorkin script is rather difficult. David Fincher did a phenominal job.

Who I Think Will Win:
David Fincher.

Picks by Others:
Guestblogger Brett Alazraki- David Fincher
Chicago Sun-Times' Roger Ebert- Tom Hooper
Chicago Sun-Times' Richard Roeper- David Fincher
Movieline's Elvis Mitchell- Tom Hooper
Rolling Stone's Peter Travers- David Fincher
New York Times' Melena Ryzik- David Fincher
Village Voice's Michael Musto- Tom Hooper
Deadline's Pete Hammond- David Fincher
Hitfix's Gregory Ellwood- David Fincher
E!'s Ben Lyons- Tom Hooper
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver- David Fincher
Sesame Street's Oscar the Grouch- The Coen Brothers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy (127 Hours)
Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich (Toy Story 3)
Ethan and Joel Coen (True Grit)
Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini (Winter's Bone)

Who I Think Should Win:
This might be the single easiest category to pick. Aaron Sorkin.

Who I Think Will Win:
Aaron Sorkin.

Picks by Others:
Guestblogger Brett Alazraki- Aaron Sorkin
Chicago Sun-Times' Roger Ebert- Aaron Sorkin
Chicago Sun-Times' Richard Roeper- Aaron Sorkin
Movieline's Elvis Mitchell- Aaron Sorkin
Rolling Stone's Peter Travers- Aaron Sorkin
New York Times' Melena Ryzik- Aaron Sorkin
Village Voice's Michael Musto- Aaron Sorkin
Deadline's Pete Hammond- Aaron Sorkin
Hitfix's Gregory Ellwood- Aaron Sorkin

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Mike Leigh (Another Year)
Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, and Eric Johnson (The Fighter)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg (The Kids are All Right)
David Seidler (The King's Speech)

Who I Think Should Win:
Christopher Nolan should have been nominated for director. The screenplay is brilliant, but the directing is what puts it over the top. Lisa Cholodenko also wrote a great script, but this one is going to David Seidler.

Who I Think Will Win:
David Seidler.

Picks by Others:
Guestblogger Brett Alazraki- David Seidler
Chicago Sun-Times' Roger Ebert- David Seidler
Chicago Sun-Times' Richard Roeper- David Seidler
Movieline's Elvis Mitchell- Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
Rolling Stone's Peter Travers- David Seidler
New York Times' Melena Ryzik- David Seidler
Village Voice's Michael Musto- David Seidler
Deadline's Pete Hammond- David Seidler
Hitfix's Gregory Ellwood- David Seidler

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
Nominees:
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Who I Think Should Win:
Toy Story 3 is nominated for Best Picture. This one is a lock.

Who I Think Will Win:
Toy Story 3.

Picks by Others:
Guestblogger Brett Alazraki- Toy Story 3
Chicago Sun-Times' Roger Ebert- Toy Story 3
Chicago Sun-Times' Richard Roeper- Toy Story 3
Movieline's Elvis Mitchell- Toy Story 3
Rolling Stone's Peter Travers- Toy Story 3
New York Times' Melena Ryzik- Toy Story 3
Village Voice's Michael Musto- Toy Story 3
Deadline's Pete Hammond- Toy Story 3
Hitfix's Gregory Ellwood- Toy Story 3

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