Saturday, February 5, 2011

Super Bowl XLV NFL Pick and Absurd Prop Bets

All season long I've been making picks for NFL games on who I think will win, regardless of gambling odds. I will do that here, but since it is the biggest day in gambling, I'll also include what I think will happen based on the odds, and how I'd go on some of the ridiculous prop bets.

That being said, the pick, to win:
Green Bay Packers over Pittsburgh Steelers

I actually think it won't be that close. If I had to guess a score, I'd go 31-21.

Now to the gambling. All odds are based on

The line for the game is Green Bay -3, altho I've seen it in other places at Green Bay -2.5. Since I have Green Bay in a blowout, I'm going with Green Bay -3

From here on out I'll be picking a lot of these as if they were even odds, just for simplicity's sake.

National Anthem Over/Under 1:54. Christina Aguilera is singing the anthem. The best comparison is her anthem performance at the 2010 NBA Finals Game 7. Starting at 0:41 and ending at 2:36, clocking in right at the over at 1:55. Nerves shouldn't be a factor causing her to speed up, Aguilera has performed in front of massive crowds before. And she may take this opportunity to show an even wider range during the anthem than she did at the basketball game. I'm taking the Over 1:54

The result of the opening coin toss. This is just a random guess. I'll take Heads

The winner of the opening coin toss. There is probably a way to look at what the Steelers have picked in the past (they are technically the road team) and then either double my winnings or hedge my bets with the last one. I don't care that much. Steelers

Team to score first. I have the Packers scoring a lot more often than the Steelers, so I'll go Packers

The first score of the game. The choices are either TD or FG/Safety. I'll go with FG/Safety (and probably a FG)

Will there be a score in the first 7:30. I'm going to say both teams come out a little cold, so No Score

Pittsburgh Steelers team score over/under 21. I swear I did not look at this before I picked them to score 21. Since I can't take a push, I'll say maybe they score a late meaningless FG, and take the Over

Green Bay Packers team score over/under 24. Over

Steelers first half points over/under 11.5. Under

Packers first half points over/under 12. Over

Team to receive the opening kickoff. Steelers

Let's get to some of the stranger ones

Pittsburgh Steelers Points Scored -7.5 over Blake Griffin Rebounds vs. Miami Heat. I have the Steelers with 21 points, so will Griffin grab 14 or more rebounds? Probably. Griffin +7.5

Larger winning margin: Super Bowl or Magic @ Celtics. I'll go Super Bowl

How many times Fox shows Cowboys owner Jerry Jones over/under 2.5. It's Jones' stadium, and it'll be the Over

Over/under Favre mentions 2.5 Over

Over/under Lockout mentions 1.5 Over

Will any player do the Lambeau Leap? Yes

Who will be holding the Lombardi Trophy on the cover of USA Today on Monday? Aaron Rodgers

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