2015 Oscars Picks

Well here we are. For the fourth year in a row, I saw all the Best Picture nominees, as well as a handful of the other nominated films this year. Let's get started with my personal preferences in the Big 8 Categories. I have not ranked the nominees I did not see.

Best Adapted Screenplay
1	Damien Chazelle	Whiplash
2	Graham Moore	The Imitation Game
3	Anthony McCarten	The Theory of Everything
4	Jason Hall	American Sniper
-	Paul Thomas Anderson	Inherent Vice

While the categorization of Whiplash as Adapted is silly, (according to the academy, it is "adapted" based on a short of the same name by Chazelle, that was made to sell the film after the film's script was completed) it is, to me, the best written of the four I saw.

Best Original Screenplay
1	Richard Linklater	Boyhood
2	Wes Anderson and Hugo Guiness	The Grand Budapest Hotel
3	Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo	Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
-	E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman	Foxcatcher
-	Dan Gilroy	Nightcrawler

This is the first of a few head-to-head-to-head battles between Linklater, Wes Anderson, and Iñárritu, and the only one where Anderson has a real chance. I personally think this is the best place to honor Linklater's 12 years of work, but I have also heard good things about the Nightcrawler screenplay.

Best Supporting Actor
1	J.K. Simmons	Whiplash
2	Edward Norton	Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
3	Ethan Hawke	Boyhood
-	Robert Duvall	The Judge
-	Mark Ruffalo	Foxcatcher

Another case of category fraud for Whiplash, as Simmons is as much the lead of the film as Miles Teller is. That said, he's also phenomenal and well deserving of the win.

Best Supporting Actress
1	Patricia Arquette	Boyhood
2	Emma Stone	Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
3	Keira Knightly	The Imitation Game
4	Meryl Streep	Into the Woods
-	Laura Dern	Wild

Patricia Arquette was the soul of Boyhood. Stone and Knightly both gave interesting performances, but this category is not close. Meryl Streep was the third best supporting actress in Into the Woods.

Best Actor
1	Eddie Redmayne	The Theory of Everything
2	Michael Keaton	Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
3	Bradley Cooper	American Sniper
4	Benedict Cumberbatch	The Imitation Game
-	Steve Carell	Foxcatcher

This is by far the closest of the acting categories, and deservingly so. Keaton and Cumberbatch likely took these roles assuming they would be Oscar wins, and both of their performances are deserving of recognition. And Cooper, who is now nominated for the third consecutive year, impressively became Chris Kyle and carried the movie in a way few could. But to me Redmayne's performance and transformation throughout the film stands slightly above the others.

Best Actress
1	Rosamund Pike	Gone Girl
2	Felicity Jones	The Theory of Everything
-	Marion Cotillard	Two Days, One Night
-	Julianne Moore	Still Alice
-	Reese Witherspoon	Wild

Pike is a revelation as Amy in Gone Girl, while Jones' performance is not much more substantial than Knightly's supporting role. This category goes to one of the biggest problems with this year's Oscars, as only one nominee is from a Best Picture nominee, and she is undeniably the second character in that. My attempt to see Still Alice was derailed by a couple hours of shoveling slush today, but this is obviously not a real race.

Best Directing
1	Alejandro González Iñárritu	Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
2	Richard Linklater	Boyhood
3	Wes Anderson	The Grand Budapest Hotel
4	Morten Tyldum	The Imitation Game
-	Bennett Miller	Foxcatcher

Iñárritu vs. Linklater vs. Anderson Round 2 goes to Iñárritu, who has the more clearly directed film the Linklater. Boyhood is more about the concept, while Birdman is about what you see on screen.

Best Picture
1	Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
2	Whiplash
3	Selma
4	The Grand Budapest Hotel
5	The Theory of Everything
6	The Imitation Game
7	Boyhood
8	American Sniper

Birdman was definitely the movie I found to be "best," although Whiplash is the film I enjoyed the most. On the other hand, American Sniper was a well executed version of a film I would never love, while Boyhood just didn't hit me; I appreciated it more than I enjoyed it. But for the third straight year, no films I truly disliked.

That's what I would pick, but here are my actual predictions for what happens tonight, based on both my opinions and my weighting various "experts":

Predictions
Picture	Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Directing	Richard Linklater	Boyhood
Actor	Eddie Redmayne	The Theory of Everything
Actress	Julianne Moore	Still Alice
Supporting Actor	J.K. Simmons	Whiplash
Supporting Actress	Patricia Arquette	Boyhood
Adapted Screenplay	Graham Moore	The Imitation Game
Original Screenplay	Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo	Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Animated Feature Film	How to Train Your Dragon 2
Foreign Language Film	Ida
Documentary Feature	Citizenfour
Documentary Short	Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Live Action Short	The Phone Call
Animated Short	The Dam Keeper
Original Score	The Theory of Everything
Original Song	"Glory"	Selma
Sound Editing	American Sniper
Sound Mixing	Whiplash
Production Design	The Grand Budapest Hotel
Cinematography	Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Makeup and Hairstyling	The Grand Budapest Hotel
Costume Design	Into the Woods
Film Editing	Boyhood
Visual Effects	Interstellar