Moderately Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions

In 2012, I made what I called "completely baseless Oscar nomination predictions," having seen only 1 or 2 films in award consideration. Last year, I upped it to "somewhat baseless Oscar nomination predictions," having seen 5 films in consideration. This year I've seen six, so we're only bumping it slightly to moderately baseless. I'll predict the 5 nominees in each of the big 8 categories, plus 1 I'm guessing will probably get in instead of who I picked, and 1 I wish was in consideration. For Best Picture, I think there will be 9 nominees, but I will also list my guess for what the 10th would be if they go for the full 10. Nominees listed alphabetically. Here we go:

Original Screen Play

My Picks:
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewin Davis
Nebraska

Who I Probably Missed:
Dallas Buyer's Club

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Saving Mr. Banks

Adapted Screen Play

My Picks:
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave

Who I Probably Missed:
The Wolf of Wall Street

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
I haven't actually seen many films that fall in here, so I'll just say Lone Survivor for Peter Berg

Supporting Actress

My Picks:
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
 Who I Probably Missed:
June Squibb, Nebraska

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street

Supporting Actor

My Picks:
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club

Who I Probably Missed:
James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
George Clooney, Gravity

Actress

My Picks:
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Who I Probably Missed:
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Whichever of those 6 above doesn't make it. And, without seeing Enough Said, Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Actor

My Picks:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Who I Probably Missed:
Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Director

My Picks:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Who I Probably Missed:
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, This Is the End

Picture

My Picks:
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewin Davis
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

(Saving Mr. Banks)
Who I Probably Missed:
Blue Jasmine, The Butler, Nebraska, Philomena

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
This Is the End

2014 Golden Globes Predictions

My Golden Globes picks for tonight are in bold. Links are from Wikipedia. Apologies to song, score, animated, and foreign film.

Best Motion Picture
Drama	Musical or Comedy
12 Years a Slave Captain Phillips Gravity Philomena Rush	American Hustle Her Inside Llewyn Davis Nebraska The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama
Actor	Actress
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave as Solomon Northup Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom as Nelson Mandela Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips as Captain Richard Phillips Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club as Ron Woodroof Robert Redford – All Is Lost as Our Man	Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine as Jeanette "Jasmine" Francis Sandra Bullock – Gravity as Dr. Ryan Stone Judi Dench – Philomena as Philomena Lee Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks as P. L. Travers Kate Winslet – Labor Day as Adele Wheeler
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Actor	Actress
Christian Bale – American Hustle as Irving Rosenfeld Bruce Dern – Nebraska as Woody Grant Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street as Jordan Belfort Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis as Llewyn Davis Joaquin Phoenix – Her as Theodore Twombly	Amy Adams – American Hustle as Sydney Prosser Julie Delpy – Before Midnight as Céline Wallace Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha as Frances Halladay Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said as Eva Meryl Streep – August: Osage County as Violet Weston
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama, Musical or Comedy
Supporting Actor	Supporting Actress
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips as Abduwali Muse Daniel Brühl – Rush as Niki Lauda Bradley Cooper – American Hustle as Richie DiMaso Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave as Edwin Epps Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club as Rayon	Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine as Ginger Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle as Rosalyn Rosenfeld Lupita Nyong'o – 12 Years a Slave as Patsey Julia Roberts – August: Osage County as Barbara Weston-Fordham June Squibb – Nebraska as Kate Grant
Best Director	Best Screenplay
Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave Alexander Payne – Nebraska David O. Russell – American Hustle	Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena Spike Jonze – Her Bob Nelson – Nebraska John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle

Best Series
Drama	Musical or Comedy
Breaking Bad Downton Abbey The Good Wife House of Cards Masters of Sex	The Big Bang Theory Brooklyn Nine-Nine Girls Modern Family Parks and Recreation
Best Performance in a Television Series – Drama
Actor	Actress
Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad as Walter White Michael Sheen – Masters of Sex as Bill Masters Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan as Ray Donovan Kevin Spacey – House of Cards as Frank Underwood James Spader – The Blacklist as Raymond Reddington	Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife as Alicia Florrick Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black as various characters Taylor Schilling – Orange is the New Black as Piper Chapman Kerry Washington – Scandal as Olivia Pope Robin Wright – House of Cards as Claire Underwood
Best Performance in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Actor	Actress
Jason Bateman – Arrested Development as Michael Bluth Don Cheadle – House of Lies as Marty Kaan Michael J. Fox – The Michael J. Fox Show as Mike Henry Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory as Sheldon Cooper Andy Samberg – Brooklyn Nine-Nine as Jake Peralta	Zooey Deschanel – New Girl as Jessica "Jess" Day Lena Dunham – Girls as Hannah Horvath Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie as Jackie Peyton Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep as Vice President Selina Meyer Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation as Leslie Knope
Best Performance in a Miniseries or Television Film
Actor	Actress
Matt Damon – Behind the Candelabra as Scott Thorson Michael Douglas – Behind the Candelabra as Liberace Chiwetel Ejiofor – Dancing on the Edge as Louis Lester Idris Elba – Luther as John Luther Al Pacino – Phil Spector as Phil Spector	Helena Bonham Carter – Burton & Taylor as Elizabeth Taylor Rebecca Ferguson – The White Queen as Elizabeth Woodville Jessica Lange – American Horror Story: Coven as Fiona Goode Helen Mirren – Phil Spector as Linda Kenney Baden Elisabeth Moss – Top of the Lake as Robin Griffin
Best Supporting Performance in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film
Supporting Actor	Supporting Actress
Josh Charles – The Good Wife as Will Gardner Rob Lowe – Behind the Candelabra as Dr. Jack Startz Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad as Jesse Pinkman Corey Stoll – House of Cards as Peter Russo Jon Voight – Ray Donovan as Mickey Donovan	Jacqueline Bisset – Dancing on the Edge as Lady Livinia Cremone Janet McTeer – The White Queen as Jacquetta of Luxembourg Hayden Panettiere – Nashville as Juliette Barnes Monica Potter – Parenthood as Kristina Braverman Sofía Vergara – Modern Family as Gloria Delgado-Pritchett
Best Miniseries or Television Film
American Horror Story: Coven Behind the Candelabra Dancing on the Edge Top of the Lake The White Queen