2014 Golden Globes Predictions

My Golden Globes picks for tonight are in bold. Links are from Wikipedia. Apologies to song, score, animated, and foreign film.

Best Motion Picture
Drama	Musical or Comedy
12 Years a Slave Captain Phillips Gravity Philomena Rush	American Hustle Her Inside Llewyn Davis Nebraska The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama
Actor	Actress
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave as Solomon Northup Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom as Nelson Mandela Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips as Captain Richard Phillips Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club as Ron Woodroof Robert Redford – All Is Lost as Our Man	Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine as Jeanette "Jasmine" Francis Sandra Bullock – Gravity as Dr. Ryan Stone Judi Dench – Philomena as Philomena Lee Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks as P. L. Travers Kate Winslet – Labor Day as Adele Wheeler
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Actor	Actress
Christian Bale – American Hustle as Irving Rosenfeld Bruce Dern – Nebraska as Woody Grant Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street as Jordan Belfort Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis as Llewyn Davis Joaquin Phoenix – Her as Theodore Twombly	Amy Adams – American Hustle as Sydney Prosser Julie Delpy – Before Midnight as Céline Wallace Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha as Frances Halladay Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said as Eva Meryl Streep – August: Osage County as Violet Weston
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama, Musical or Comedy
Supporting Actor	Supporting Actress
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips as Abduwali Muse Daniel Brühl – Rush as Niki Lauda Bradley Cooper – American Hustle as Richie DiMaso Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave as Edwin Epps Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club as Rayon	Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine as Ginger Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle as Rosalyn Rosenfeld Lupita Nyong'o – 12 Years a Slave as Patsey Julia Roberts – August: Osage County as Barbara Weston-Fordham June Squibb – Nebraska as Kate Grant
Best Director	Best Screenplay
Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave Alexander Payne – Nebraska David O. Russell – American Hustle	Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena Spike Jonze – Her Bob Nelson – Nebraska John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle

Best Series
Drama	Musical or Comedy
Breaking Bad Downton Abbey The Good Wife House of Cards Masters of Sex	The Big Bang Theory Brooklyn Nine-Nine Girls Modern Family Parks and Recreation
Best Performance in a Television Series – Drama
Actor	Actress
Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad as Walter White Michael Sheen – Masters of Sex as Bill Masters Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan as Ray Donovan Kevin Spacey – House of Cards as Frank Underwood James Spader – The Blacklist as Raymond Reddington	Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife as Alicia Florrick Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black as various characters Taylor Schilling – Orange is the New Black as Piper Chapman Kerry Washington – Scandal as Olivia Pope Robin Wright – House of Cards as Claire Underwood
Best Performance in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Actor	Actress
Jason Bateman – Arrested Development as Michael Bluth Don Cheadle – House of Lies as Marty Kaan Michael J. Fox – The Michael J. Fox Show as Mike Henry Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory as Sheldon Cooper Andy Samberg – Brooklyn Nine-Nine as Jake Peralta	Zooey Deschanel – New Girl as Jessica "Jess" Day Lena Dunham – Girls as Hannah Horvath Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie as Jackie Peyton Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep as Vice President Selina Meyer Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation as Leslie Knope
Best Performance in a Miniseries or Television Film
Actor	Actress
Matt Damon – Behind the Candelabra as Scott Thorson Michael Douglas – Behind the Candelabra as Liberace Chiwetel Ejiofor – Dancing on the Edge as Louis Lester Idris Elba – Luther as John Luther Al Pacino – Phil Spector as Phil Spector	Helena Bonham Carter – Burton & Taylor as Elizabeth Taylor Rebecca Ferguson – The White Queen as Elizabeth Woodville Jessica Lange – American Horror Story: Coven as Fiona Goode Helen Mirren – Phil Spector as Linda Kenney Baden Elisabeth Moss – Top of the Lake as Robin Griffin
Best Supporting Performance in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film
Supporting Actor	Supporting Actress
Josh Charles – The Good Wife as Will Gardner Rob Lowe – Behind the Candelabra as Dr. Jack Startz Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad as Jesse Pinkman Corey Stoll – House of Cards as Peter Russo Jon Voight – Ray Donovan as Mickey Donovan	Jacqueline Bisset – Dancing on the Edge as Lady Livinia Cremone Janet McTeer – The White Queen as Jacquetta of Luxembourg Hayden Panettiere – Nashville as Juliette Barnes Monica Potter – Parenthood as Kristina Braverman Sofía Vergara – Modern Family as Gloria Delgado-Pritchett
Best Miniseries or Television Film
American Horror Story: Coven Behind the Candelabra Dancing on the Edge Top of the Lake The White Queen

2013 Emmy Picks

Last year, with my Emmy picks, there were fancy pictures with nominees and last year's winners and expert picks. I also went only 6/14 on my picks. So this year, you're just getting text.

Outstanding Miniseries or Movie
Last year, it was: Game Change
This year, it should be: Top of the Lake
But it will be: Behind the Candelabra
But watch out for: Political Animals
And a nomination should have gone to: based on reputation, The Hour

Outstanding Reality Competition Program
Last year, it was: The Amazing Race
This year, it should be: The Voice
But it will be: The Amazing Race
But watch out for: Top Chef
And a nomination should have gone to: Survivor

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Modern Family- "Baby on Board"
This year, it should be: 30 Rock- "Hogcock"/"Last Lunch"
But it will be: Modern Family- "Arrested"
But watch out for: 30 Rock- "Hogcock"/"Last Lunch"
And a nomination should have gone to: The Office- "Finale"

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Boardwalk Empire- "To the Lost"
This year, it should be: Homeland- "Q&A"
But it will be: Homeland- "Q&A"
But watch out for: House of Cards- "Chapter 1"
And a nomination should have gone to: Mad Men- "For Immediate Release"

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Louie- "Pregnant"
This year, it should be: 30 Rock- "Last Lunch"
But it will be: 30 Rock- "Last Lunch"
But watch out for: Louie- "Daddy's Girlfriend, Part 1"
And a nomination should have gone to: Parks and Recreation- "Leslie and Ben"

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Homeland- "Pilot"
This year, it should be: Homeland- "Q&A"
But it will be: Homeland- "Q&A"
But watch out for: Game of Thrones- "The Rains of Castamere"
And a nomination should have gone to: Mad Men- "In Care Of"

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
This year, it should be: Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
But it will be: Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
But watch out for: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
And a nomination should have gone to: Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation; Simon Helberg, The Big Bang Theory

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Julie Bowen, Modern Family
This year, it should be: Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
But it will be: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
But watch out for: Julie Bowen, Modern Family
And a nomination should have gone to: Jenna Fischer, The Office; Carly Chaikin, Suburgatory

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
This year, it should be: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
But it will be: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
But watch out for: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
And a nomination should have gone to: Vincent Kartheiser, Mad Men; Guillermo Diaz, Scandal

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
This year, it should be: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
But it will be: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
But watch out for: Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
And a nomination should have gone to: Bellamy Young, Scandal; Monica Potter, Parenthood

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
This year, it should be: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
But it will be: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
But watch out for: Louis C.K., Louie
And a nomination should have gone to: Jake Johnson, New Girl; Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
This year, it should be: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
But it will be: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
But watch out for: Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep
And a nomination should have gone to: Zooey Deschanel, New Girl; Sutton Foster, Bunheads

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Damian Lewis, Homeland
This year, it should be: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
But it will be: Damian Lewis, Homeland
But watch out for: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
And a nomination should have gone to: Matthew Rhys, The Americans; Johnny Lee Miller, Elementary

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Claire Danes, Homeland
This year, it should be: Claire Danes, Homeland
But it will be: Claire Danes, Homeland
But watch out for: Kerry Washington, Scandal
And a nomination should have gone to: Kerry Russell, The Americans; Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

Outstanding Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Modern Family
This year, it should be: 30 Rock
But it will be: Modern Family
But watch out for: 30 Rock
And a nomination should have gone to: New Girl; Parks and Recreation

Outstanding Drama Series
Last year, it was: Homeland
This year, it should be: Mad Men
But it will be: Game of Thrones
But watch out for: Homeland
And a nomination should have gone to: The Americans; Orphan Black

Top Tens of the 2012-13 Season

Only qualifications were that the season mostly aired between June 1, 2012 and May 31, 2013, so shows like Orange is the New Black or The Bridge were not eligible for these lists.

Episode list is limited to one per series and is alphabetical. First, here are episode honorable mentions.

The new series and series lists are ranked 1-10, with 5 honorable mentions listed alphabetically. 

Super-Quick Mid-Bar Review Emmy Nomination Predictions

Hey all. I haven't thought these out as well as I would like do to bar studying, and it's possible I'll have some nominee picks that didn't submit themselves (I did look at the list when it first came out), but here you go, on the big 10 categories, with nominee picks alphabetized:

Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men

But It'll Probably Be: Boardwalk Empire
But I Really Hope For: Scandal

Drama Lead Actress
Glen Close, Damages
Claire Danes, Homeland
Julianne Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Keri Russell, The Americans
Kerry Washington, Scandal

But It'll Probably Be: Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
But I Really Hope For: Lucy Liu, Elementary

Drama Lead Actor
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

But It'll Probably Be: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
But I Really Hope For: Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Drama Supporting Actress
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
January Jones, Mad Men
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

But It'll Probably Be: Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
But I Really Hope For: Kiernan Shipka, Mad Men

Drama Supporting Actor
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Noah Emmerich, The Americans
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
John Slattery, Mad Men
Dan Stevens, Downton Abbey

But It'll Probably Be: Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
But I Really Hope For: Guillermo Diaz, Scandal

Comedy Series
30 Rock
Arrested Development
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family

But It'll Probably Be: Veep
But I Really Hope For: New Girl

Comedy Lead Actor
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Louie C.K., Louie
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

But It'll Probably Be: Don Cheadle, House of Lies
But I Really Hope For: Jake Johnson, New Girl

Comedy Lead Actress
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

But It'll Probably Be: Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
But I Really Hope For: Sutton Foster, Bunheads

Comedy Supporting Actor
Will Arnett, Arrested Development
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

But It'll Probably Be: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
But I Really Hope For: Rainn Wilson, The Office

Comedy Supporting Actress
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Jessica Walter, Arrested Development
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie

But It'll Probably Be: Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
But I Really Hope For: Jenna Fischer, The Office

The Office Top Tens

It's time for end of the season top ten lists, but with the bar exam dominating my life, those won't come until August. Instead, here are 5 top ten lists related to The Office which, ideally, would have been posted around the time that finale aired, but what can you do.

2013 MLB Predictions

My 2012 predictions did not go very well (spoiler alert- neither Brian Wilson nor Mariano Rivera led their respective leagues, or teams for that matter, in saves) but that doesn't mean I won't try again. Here we go:

NL
East
1. Nationals
2. Braves*
3. Mets
4. Phillies
5. Marlins

Central
1. Reds
2. Cardinals
3. Brewers
4. Pirates
5. Cubs

West
1. Giants
2. Diamondbacks*
3. Dodgers
4. Rockies
5. Padres

*-Wildcard

NLWC

Braves over Diamondbacks

NLDS
Nationals over Braves

Reds over Giants
NLCS
Reds over Nationals

Awards
MVP: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Rookie of the Year: Shelby Miller, Cardinals
Manager of the Year: Kirk Gibson, Diamondbacks

Leaders
Batting Average: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Homeruns: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
RBI: Joey Votto, Reds
Stolen Bases: Ben Revere, Phillies
Wins: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
ERA: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Strikeouts: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Saves: Jonathon Papelbon, Phillies
  

AL
East
1. Rays
2. Blue Jays*
3. Orioles*
4. Yankees
5. Red Sox

Central
1. Tigers
2. Royals
3. Indians
4. White Sox
5. Twins

West
1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. Athletics
4. Mariners

5. Astros

*-Wildcard

ALWC

Blue Jays over Orioles

ALDS
Blue Jays over Tigers

Rays over Angels
ALCS

Rays over Blue Jays

Awards
MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
Cy Young: Yu Darvish, Rangers
Rookie of the Year: Jurickson Profar, Rangers
Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Rays

Leaders
Batting Average: Mike Trout, Angels
Homeruns: Prince Fielder, Tigers
RBI: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Stolen Bases: Michael Bourn, Indians
Wins: Yu Darvish, Rangers
ERA: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Strikeouts: Justin Verlander, Tigers
Saves: Joe Nathan, Rangers

World Series
Rays over Reds
World Series MVP
David Price, Rays

Managers Fired During/After Season
Charlie Manuel, Phillies (retirement)

Clint Hurdle, Pirates

Don Mattingly, Dodgers

Walt Weiss, Rockies

Eric Wedge, Mariners

2013 Oscar Predictions

Like last year, I saw all of the Academy Awards best picture nominees. I also saw a number of other movies, which left me missing only three of the films nominated in the big eight awards (Best Actress nominee Naomi Watts' The Impossible, Best Supporting Actress nominee Helen Hunt's The Sessions, and Best Writing- Original Screenplay nominee Moonrise Kingdom). To start off, here are my opinions on the nominees in each of those eight categories (when I didn't see the film, I did not rank the nominee).

Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Life of Pi are all directing achievements, and Silver Linings Playbook is all about the actors. Lincoln was not my favorite film, and it was certainly slow in spots, but it was also exceptionally well crafted by one of the greatest American writers alive.

This is a bit of a strange category- neither Flight or Moonrise Kingdom are Best Picture nominees, and neither Zero Dark Thirty or Amour are films that rely more on directing and acting than a great script. That leaves Django which is deserving of a few awards. This one may end up its best shot.

My number 1 director was Zero Dark Thirty's Kathryn Bigelow; she's not here. My number 2 director was Argo's Ben Affleck; he's not here. You could have presented me the category with Bigelow, Affleck, Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), and P.T. Anderson (The Master) and I'd be happy. Instead we have these five. None would be a terrible choice, but none are the best either. I went with Zeitlin who, in Beasts of the Southern Wild, directed a 6 year-old lead through a vast array of adventures.

This one is a runaway for Hathaway. There is a decent recent history for supporting actresses in musicals- Jennifer Hudson won for Dreamgirls in 2006 and Catherine Zeta-Jones won for Chicago in 2002, while Queen Latifah and Penelope Cruz also received nominations in this category for their musical work. The fact that Hathaway is only in a small portion of the film is an argument people make, but it's a silly one; Beatrice Straight won the supporting actress Oscar for Network in 1977 with a grand total of 5:40 in screen time. In years without this strong a candidate (like last year), Field and Adams would both be worthy winners. Weaver, on the other hand, had no place getting nominated. She wasn't bad in Silver Linings Playbook at all, just not memorable.

This is a fascinating category with, for the first time ever, all five nominees being former winners. Two of the nominees (Waltz in Django and Hoffman in The Master) are pretty close to being leads, while Arkin in Argo is close to being a cameo. I thought Waltz was the strongest, but I'd be pretty much okay with any of these winning.

I was pretty set with Silver Linings Playbook's Lawrence ahead of Amour's Riva for 2nd since watching Amour a couple weeks ago. While I think I liked Lawrence's performance a bit more, I think Riva's was probably objectively better. That said, neither of them hold a candle to Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty which was my favorite performance in a film in a long, long time.

This is another category where none of the nominees are weak, but Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln is great at a level that the others are not (and likely could never be; we're talking about Abraham Lincoln after all). That said, Washington carried Flight in a way that few actors could. And while I have Cooper at the bottom, he showed a side of himself, a side that included award discussion-worthy acting, in Silver Linings Playbook that I had never seen from him before. I assume it will carry over to The Hangover Part III.*

*I do not expect this to carry over to The Hangover Part III.

So I've gone over my feelings on all of these quite a bit on Twitter, so just some brief bullets:

-I've basically had Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty as 1 and 1a since seeing both and they're both movies I genuinely love. I went with ZDT as 1 just because I admit I have a pretty strong pro-Les Mis bias that would have made me love the film even if it was Rent quality (it isn't).

-All of my top 6 films would probably be in my top 2 (along with The Descendants) last year. I think Django is a great movie (and 45 more minutes of movie), but just not the same level as the five above it.

-I didn't dislike any of these movies. I don't feel the need to necessarily see any of my bottom 3 again, but none of them were difficult to get through in the way Tree of Life was. Man, Tree of Life was awful.

-Top 2 are a tier, Argo is a step below them, then a big gap, then the next 3, then another big gap and the last three.

-All 9 are impressive in their own ways, and I expect all 9 to walk away with at least one award tomorrow. Has that happened before?

So who do I THINK will win? Well here are my picks for who I want and who I predict, along with a slew of expert picks for the big 8 awards (click to see it larger):

And here are my (less educated) picks on the rest of the categories:

What do you think? Who do you pick?

AIRS Show Ranker

As you may no, I have done some statistical work for ThisWasTV.com including the creation of a stat called AIRS. You can learn more about AIRS here, but for now I'm looking at possibly adding another element to it, which is a public ranking. There are two poll questions below (which you can also fill out using your full browser screen here). The first question asks you to rate 500 shows. You can move on to the second question as long as you do 20, do as many as you want, and pick and choose which you want to do. The second is a ranking of all 500. You can completely bypass that, or rank the shows if you have time. Thank you so much!

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