My Emmy Predictions

The 62nd Primetime Emmy Awards are tomorrow, so here are my predictions and commentary for each award:


The Award:
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

The Nominees:
-Breaking Bad (AMC)
-Dexter (Showtime)
-The Good Wife (CBS)
-Lost (ABC)
-Mad Men (AMC)
-True Blood (HBO)


The Defending Champion:
Mad Men


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Lost
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Mad Men
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- True Blood
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Mad Men
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- The Good Wife


My Pick:
Mad Men. It's just hard to see the critics not giving it the threepeat. The emotional pull for Lost won't be enough.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
I admit I don't watch many dramas, but with 2 stars nominated, you would think NBC's Friday Night Lights also deserves an Outstanding Series nod.


The Award:

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

The Nominees:
-30 Rock (NBC)
-Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
-Glee (Fox)
-Modern Family (ABC)
-Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
-The Office (NBC)


The Defending Champion:
30 Rock


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Modern Family
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Modern Family
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Glee
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Modern Family
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Modern Family


My Pick:
Modern Family. The last time an hour long series has won the Comedy Emmy was Ally McBeal in 1999. As good as Glee is, I don't see it happening again this year.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
It is rare one of the best written comedies is also the best rated. The Academy seems to have something against CBS's The Big Bang Theory, but I'm not sure what.


The Award:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

The Nominees:
-Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights (NBC)
-Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
-Matthew Fox, Lost
-Michael C. Hall, Dexter
-Jon Hamm, Mad Men
-Hugh Laurie, House (Fox)


The Defending Champion:
Cranston


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Chandler
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Cranston/Chandler
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Chandler/Fox
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Hall
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Chandler


My Pick:
Cranston. This is one of the hardest to call. Sentimental value should be towards Fox and the now completed Lost. Cranston is a two time defending champion. Chandler has long been considered a snub. It could go either of those ways, but again I sense when the competition is too close to call, the voters go with the status quo.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
The Mentalist's Simon Baker (CBS) seems to have gone from beloved to forgotten in the course of one year.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES


The Nominees:
-Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
-Glenn Close, Damages (FX)
-Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order:SVU (NBC)
-January Jones, Mad Men

-Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

-Kyra Sedgewick, The Closer (TNT)

The Defending Champion:

Close


The Expert Opinion:

Ken Tucker (EW)- Margulies

Michael Ausiello (EW)- Margulies
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Margulies
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Margulies
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Margulies


My Pick:
Margulies. The consensus above exists for a reason. She carried the top new drama and will win.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Again, I don't watch, but the Academy seemingly forgot despite its cancellation that TNT's Saving Grace and Holly Hunter did have a 2009-10 season.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

The Nominees:
-Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
-Steve Carrell, The Office
-Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
-Matthew Morrison, Glee
-Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
-Tony Shalhoub, Monk (USA)

The Defending Champion:
Baldwin


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Parsons
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Parsons
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Parsons
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Shalhoub
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Parsons


My Pick:
Parsons. Who knew that Monk was still on? Shalhoub has won three times for his title role, and a victory for the final season is certainly possible, but he is not the most deserving. Nor is 2-time defending winner Baldwin. Parsons' Sheldon is perhaps the most interesting character on television, and Parsons captures him perfectly. The fact that he doesn't have one or two of these yet is criminal.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Hopefully Community's Joel McHale (NBC) will replace Shalhoub on this list for many years to come.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES


The Nominees:
-Toni Collette, United States of Tara (Showtime)
-Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
-Tina Fey, 30 Rock
-Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine (CBS)

-Lea Michele, Glee

-Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (NBC)

 The Defending Champion:
Collette


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Falco
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Falco
Kristin dos Santos (E!)- Michele
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Falco
Alessandra Stanley (NY Times)- Poehler


My Pick:
Michele. Honestly, any of these six could win and it wouldn't shock me. Collette, as the defending champ, clearly is liked by the academy. Similarly, Fey won in 2008 and Louis-Dreyfus in 2006. Falco won for drama for The Sopranos on multiple occasions, but there are questions about how much of a comedy Nurse Jackie is. Poehler gave perhaps the best performance of any of these actresses this season. But, for at least the first half of the season and much of the second, carried the most buzzed about TV series on her shoulders. This could at least make up for her 2007 Tony Award non-nomination snub for Spring Awakening.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Courtney Cox carried ABC's Cougar Town until it found what it was meant to be.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES


The Nominees:
-Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age (TNT)
-Michael Emerson, Lost
-Terry O'Quinn, Lost
-Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
-Martin Short, Damages

-John Slattery, Mad Men

The Defending Champion:

Emerson

The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Braugher
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Paul
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- O'Quinn


My Pick:
O'Quinn. I've never seen any of these shows, so I'm giving Lost the emotional sentiment here. I picked O'Quinn over Emerson, since I know that O'Quinn's characters played a significant role in the final season.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Would've been nice to see The Good Wife's Josh Charles get a nod.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

The Nominees:
-Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
-Rose Byrne, Damages
-Sharon Gless, Burn Notice (USA)
-Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
-Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
-Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife


The Defending Champion:
Cherry Jones, 24 (Fox)


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Hendricks
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Hendricks
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Hendricks


My Pick:
Hendricks. This has been a breakout year for Hendricks, and an Emmy would be a great highlight.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
There should always be a spot on this list of nominations for Grey's Anatomy's Chandra Wilson (ABC), who provided unbelievable work throughout the season, but particularly in the otherwise overdramatic season finale.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

The Nominees:
-Ty Burrell, Modern Family
-Chris Colfer, Glee
-Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (CBS)
-Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
-Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother (CBS)
-Eric Stonestreet, Modern FamilyThe Defending Champion:
Cryer


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Burrell
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Burrell

Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Colfer

My Pick:

Jeremy Piven, Entourage (HBO). No, seriously, Harris. After years of deserving to win and failing to do so, NPH finally gets his statue (actually his 2nd, he won for his guest appearance on Glee last week) in a year he is not the most deserving nominee. No, that would be Burrell, the highlight of most Modern Family episodes. But he could very easily split votes with his 2 conominated costars, leaving Harris with a victory that can only be considered legen-

Wait for it.*

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Ed O'Neill is the obvious snub with all his adult costars getting nods, but Community's Danny Pudi and 30 Rock's Jack McBrayer are possibly the funniest characters on TV.

The Award:
OUTSTANDING SUPPOTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

The Nominees:
-Julie Bowen, Modern Family
-Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
-Jane Lynch, Glee
-Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men
-Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
-Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (SNL)


The Defending Champion:
Kristin Chenoweth, Pushing Daisies (ABC)


The Expert Opinion:
Ken Tucker (EW)- Lynch
Michael Ausiello (EW)- Lynch
Tom O'Neil (LA Times)- Lynch

My Pick:
Lynch. She was TV's breakout star this year, but this should only be the first of many Emmy wins.

Who Else I Would Have Nominated:
Park and Recreation's Rashida Jones will easily be here in the future, if her storyline with Rob Lowe is anywhere near as good as it can be.

The Other Awards:

Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series: If The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien does not win, it will be almost as bad as that time Jay Leno screwed him out of hosting The Tonight Show.

Outstanding Reality Competition Program: The Amazing Race has won every year in the history of this award. Unless there is a strong sentiment in Hollywood for Simon Cowell (and I don't think there is), the streak will continue.

*dary. Legendary.

Some Lists of Some Things

Sorry about the few days off. And then the half post. Busy becoming a law student and getting better internet access.

Today everything I say will be in lists. Because I can.

Top Five Things I Think About Bob's Discount Furniture, After I Ordered Furniture From Them In June to be Delivered Friday August 13th, They Failed to Show Up Friday August 13th, They Showed Up 5 Hours Late on Tuesday August 17th, and Only Brought My Bed and Night Stand Because the "Desk was Damaged" and the "Forgot I Ordered a Dresser," and Then My Father Had to Pick Up the Desk and Dresser from the Show Room and Drive Them to Brooklyn, Because They Weren't Sure When or If They'd Be Able to Deliver:

(spoiler alert: this list is gunna be negative against Bob's)

5. Seriously, this is what we got to replace Toys R Us in Freeport? Toys R Us would've done a better job delivering furniture.

4. When you called to confirm delivery on Monday, you couldn't bother to let me know that I was only getting half of my order? Even if you're just going out to dinner and the waiter brings one person's dish, he always says "your's will be out in a few minutes."

3. The fact (and let's call it Fun Fact #10) that Bob's Discount Furniture is an official partner of the New York Mets now makes total and complete sense.

2. I actually spent Tuesday evening hoping Ashton Kutcher would pop out and tell me I've been punked. It did not happen.

1. They gave me a $100 gift card for messing up. Just think about the assumption being made when you give someone who's order you completely and totally fucked up a $100 gift card.

Top Seven Things I'm Looking Forward to/Hoping to/Interested to See on the (many) TV Shows I Watch This Season (In Bergeronian Order):

1. How I Met Your Mother: We know there are major developments this season. We know this season starts off with a SPOILER ALERT. And we know that (and are very happy that) Rachel Bilson is back for another episode. This leads me to believe we may actually learn who the mother is this season. I go back and forth on this issue. On one hand, the show is called How I MET Your Mother, not How I Got to Know Your Mother. By introducing the Mother, it essentially ends the series. On the other hand, the show was mediocre to poor with few exceptions last season (the 100th Ep featuring Bilson, Tim Gunn, Stacy Keibler, and Barney's Suit Song being the most notable exception). Adding the mother would be the kind of shake up that could make the show more enjoyable, even if it brings about an earlier expiration date. We also know we're seeing more Robin Sparkles this season, so thats a positive no matter what else happens.

2. Big Bang Theory- Leonard and Penny broke up at the end of last season. There's a decent chance if they're still broken up at the end of this season, it could be my last season. Also while Jim Parsons is excellent at playing Sheldon as he does, the character has been the same for the entire series. There needs to be changes. I think there will be with a (potential?) love interest this season, but we'll see...

3. Community and Modern Family- It will be interesting to see if either (or both) of these shows suffer from a sophomore slump. I could have included Glee here too (see #6), but between the half season split and the first season ending more than a calendar year after it began, it does not seem like a second year show. Community put itself in an interesting position with the final couple episodes, having Jeff (SPOILER ALERT) first sleep with Brita, then the choice between Brita and Prof. Slater (who I loved in Grey's Anatomy and again on this show), and finally having him choose Annie. I am on Team Annie (along with being on the same team as Starburns, Team CoCo), Annie was probably my favorite character, aside from Abed, throughout the season. I haven't seen any spoilers on where they're going from here, so it will be interesting to see if Jeff and Annie are actually together when the season begins. My worry is this show didn't really grow outside of this one storyline last season, so a second season could become stale very quickly (much like Chevy Chase was by like the 3rd episode).

Modern Family showed more of a willingness than Community last season to shine the spotlight during various episodes on various characters. Hopefully they continue to do this in the 2nd season, especially involving the children some more. I think Modern Family is in less danger of falling into a sophomore slump, but they are in some danger (as is Community and Glee) of over-using guest stars, and therefore not showing enough of the actual stars.

4. The Office- There is no show this season, or perhaps in modern tv history, that is facing a more curious season than The Office is facing this season. Two Things are Known: Fun Fact #11: Steve Carrell is leaving after this season. Fun Fact #12: The show is continuing past this season. There will be two questions that span the entire season- the minor question: What will happen between Michael and Holly? And the major question: Who will replace Michael as the boss? To me the second question is the most important. Going character by character- We've already seen Jim and Ryan as the boss, so lets rule them out. Pam hasn't put in the time in sales yet, so another no. Andy's personality is too questionable. Erin is too new and fresh. Stanley wouldn't want the job if it was offered to him. Kevin's too dumb, Creed too old. It's unlikely an accountant would become manager, so let's rule out Angela and Oscar also. This leaves Dwight, Meredith, Kelly, Toby, Darryl, Phyllis, or an outsider. I think they should go with Kelly. They set it up last season with the minority leadership training. Her relationship with Erin would take a whole new twist with Erin working for her, not to mention her relationship with Ryan. This is what I hope to see. It is not what I expect. I expect it will be an outsider, and quite possibly Portia de Rossi, as it was recently rumored to be a former Arrested Development star. I would be very content with this.

5. 30 Rock- Like Carrell, Alec Baldwin has announced he plans to leave. Unlike Carrell a) Baldwin still has one more season after this, and b) Baldwin is not the star of the show. I think the show can pretty easily survive without him. My question about 30 Rock is if they will bring back Josh. He suddenly, and for no particular reason, went to Mandyville a couple years ago. I also want to see how much of a regular Elizabeth Banks becomes. She's said she won't do TV full time at this point, but I do help the pregnancy leads to some consistant appearences. Big fan. If she wasn't on the list the other day, add her. Anyone who can simultaneously come out with one movie where she is a title character in Zach and Miri Make a Porno, and one where she plays Laura Bush, plus be funny on Twitter (see the third list) is awesome in my book.

6. Glee- I will do a more thorough look at Glee on the eve of the season premiere, but what I am looking forward to is probably the same thing many of you are looking forward to, but not for the same reason. I think Britney Spears is fine, the first concert I went to was the Slave 4 U tour (in a suite, at MSG, opened by O-Town (Fun Fact #13- I watched the entire first season of Making the Band. Really a good idea for a show)), and she certainly is entertaining. But I'm most exciting about an episode featuring Heather Morris, aka Brittany. She was by far my favorite character last season. I'd look forward to her 1-2 lines an episode more than anything else. When the first announced she was being promoted to full time I was very excited, and when they revealed she'd be the star of an episode it only got better. This episode, good or bad, could very well be what defines Season 2 Part 1.

7. Grey's Anatomy- Like Glee, I will likely devote a post to Grey's and Private Practice before their premieres. While the most interesting thing on Grey's will be coping with the shootings (and on PP the death of Dell), I'm most interested in seeing how it affects Jackson and April (first and third from left), and their relationships with the others, especially after the deaths of Charlie and Reed (second and fourth). Obviously Jackson and Cristina have some chemistry, and Meredith and April forged a relationship during the finale. It will be interesting to see where things for these two new full timers go.

Top Ten Non-Sports People You Should (and I Do) Follow (again in Bergeronian Order):

1. @Pres_Bartlet and the rest of The West Wing Crew

2. @arnettwill Arrested Development's (and Amy Poehler's) Will Arnett

3. @FakeAPStylebook Exactly what it sounds like. A parody of the AP Stylebook

4. @ElizabethBanks See section labeled 30 Rock

5. @IAmKellyFierce See section labeled The Office

6. @IAmErinHannon and @veRY_ANgelic for their interactions with #5

7. @ConanOBrien as if there is anyone who isn't following him already.

8. @chucktodd MSNBC's Chuck Todd, my favorite politico to follow.

9. @sethmeyers21 Seth Meyers, who is funnier on Twitter than when actually writing SNL

10. @McCainBlogette Meghan McCain, who is legitimately accepting of other's political views.

Well that does it for today. Sorry this post took so long. Actual law school starts tomorrow! Peace.