2015 Emmy Predictions

Here are my 2015 Emmy predictions. My original plan was for each major category I would list why each actual nominee will win, and why they'll lose, who I want to win, and who I think will win. But Blogspot failed to save a bunch after I wrote them, so now I have that for the series categories, and brief, general thoughts and picks on each series acting category, and picks of who will win the other categories:

Outstanding Comedy Series
Louie:
Why It Will Win- Over the past 7 Emmys, only three shows have won comedy writing Emmys- Modern Family (twice), 30 Rock (thrice), and Louie (twice). In that same period of time, the Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy has only gone to winners of that award- 30 Rock twice, and Modern Family five times. So Louie fits right in.
Why It Will Lose- Louie is in its fifth season and has already lost to Modern Family in this category twice. You need to go back to Everybody Loves Raymond in 2003 to find a show that won its first Comedy Series Emmy later than its 2nd season. If it was going to happen for Louie, it probably would have happened. Also, while cable dominates in drama, a cable comedy has only won the Comedy Series Emmy once, Sex and the City in 2001.

Modern Family:
Why It Will Win- It has literally never lost. Modern Family has won this award in each of its five seasons, even as its other nominations and wins have dropped.
Why It Will Lose- No series has ever won six series Emmys before, comedy or drama, consecutive or not. Only Frasier had won five, prior to Modern Family. Do Emmy voters really want to anoint Modern Family the winningest television series of all time?

Parks and Recreation:
Why It Will Win- The Emmys like final seasons. In the past decade, series Emmys have gone to the final seasons of Breaking Bad, The Sopranos, and Everybody Loves Raymond. This is a chance to send off a beloved series with a trophy.
Why It Will Lose- Unlike Breaking Bad*, The Sopranos, and Everybody Loves Raymond, Parks and Recreation has never won a series Emmy before. In fact, it's never won ANY Emmy before. It's only been nominated in this category once before, for the great third season. Bringing it back into the category is the send off that Parks is getting.

*Okay, technically Breaking Bad never won a series Emmy before its final season, thanks to the split fifth season. Still, Breaking Bad won prior to the award honoring its conclusion.

Silicon Valley:
Why It Will Win- Last year's surprise nominee comes off a buzzier second season, now armed with Director's and Writer's Guild nominations, a Golden Globe nomination, and a Critic's Choice win. And HBO is the only cable channel to win in this category.
Why It Will Lose- Even with the buzz and the other awards support, Silicon Valley actually has two fewer nominations this year than it had last year. The last show to win the Comedy Series Emmy without an acting nominee was The Wonder Years in 1988.

Transparent:
Why It Will Win- It won the Golden Globe for Comedy Series and leads all comedy series in nominations. It also won the Satellite and Director's Guild Awards. It's about a buzzy topic, and three of the past five series to win the Comedy Series Emmy won it in their first season.
Why It Will Lose- The Television Academy is not necessarily the most progressive group in the world, and for Transparent that can be a factor not only in subject matter, but in medium as well. No streaming show has won a series Emmy, and Amazon Studio's only Emmy win was a Daytime Emmy for preschool series Tumble Leaf earlier this year. And is it a comedy?

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt:
Why It Will Win- Tina Fey and Robert Carlock's last collaboration yielded Emmy wins in Comedy Series for its first three seasons. It's also flashy and new- Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt debuted in March, 2015, 13 months after the pilot of fellow rookie nominee Transparent first became available.
Why It Will Lose- 30 Rock won three series Emmys, but they were all before Modern Family. It has the same streaming issue as Transparent, and does not have the advantage of voters feeling like they're making a statement by picking it. And while the series picked up several nominations, lead Ellie Kemper was passed over in favor of the lead of a different, non-nominated Netflix series.

Veep:
Why It Will Win- Veep has been building every year. The series and star Julia Louis-Dreyfus were nominated from season one, adding supporting players Tony Hale and Anna Chlumsky for season two, writing for season three, and directing this year. And Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won for Lead Actress every season so far.
Why It Will Lose- Like Louie, Veep has had several chances to dethrone Modern Family, to no avail. In fact, just re-read the Louie section with minor alterations- Veep is only in its fourth season, but it has already been nominated in this category three times before this year.

Who Should Win- Parks and Recreation. A fantastic final season of a great show deserves the send off.

Who Will Win- Modern Family. It's probably going to lose either this year or next year, but I'll say it gets the record. There's no other obvious pick.

Outstanding Drama Series
Better Call Saul:
Why It Will Win- It's sort of the incumbent. The Breaking Bad spinoff takes the slot of the two time defending champion, and features largely the same creative team and a handful of the same actors. 
Why It Will Lose- Lou Grant was the last spinoff series to win the Emmy for Drama Series, in 1980, and even that was not a spinoff of a drama. Star Trek: The Next Generation and Boston Legal were both nominated, but never won. Better Call Saul is not Breaking Bad, and voters will likely not treat it as season 6.

Downton Abbey:
Why It Will Win- It still has some awards buzz. Downton Abbey surprisingly took the drama ensemble SAG award this year, and while that is by no means a precursor, it has agreed with the Emmy Drama Series winner four of the past seven years.
Why It Will Lose- Nobody cares about Downton Abbey anymore. Most of the buzz the show got this past year was about Maggie Smith saying she was leaving, the producers saying Maggie Smith wasn't leaving, and then the announcement that the show was ending. It hasn't won in its three years in this category, and Maggie Smith isn't even nominated this year.

Game of Thrones:
Why It Will Win- It has the most nominations, by a good margin, with 24. It has more acting nominations than it ever has before, with Peter Dinklage, Emilia Clarke, Lena Headey, and Diana Rigg. It has high ratings, critical buzz, HBO prestige, and it's the nominated series to air most closely to the voting period.
Why It Will Lose- It's been here every season and not only has it never won, it has lost to three different series, including two nominated this year. Additionally, no fantasy show has ever won in this category before. 

Homeland:
Why It Will Win- It also has a claim as a sort of incumbent, as the most recent series to win that's in this category. Homeland was the first show to beat Mad Men, and topped Downton Abbey and Game of Thrones in 2012 as well. It also got some critical praise for a rebound season.
Why It Will Lose- Homeland may have won in 2012, but it was not even nominated in 2014. The seven nominees in this category have combined for 27 seasons, and 24 of those seasons have been nominated in this category; the three seasons that were not nominated were Downton Abbey season 1 (nominated as a miniseries), Orange is the New Black season 1 (nominated as a comedy), and Homeland season 4 (not nominated at all.

House of Cards:
Why It Will Win- It has never lost to anything except Breaking Bad, and Breaking Bad is gone. Since its debut, there has been a large sense that House of Cards is the kind of prestige show made for Emmy wins, and with the Drama Series (and lead actor) spot open, now is its shot.
Why It Will Lose- It has yet to win much of anything. For its first two seasons, the awards haul for House of Cards has been Emmys for Directing, Casting, Cinematography, and Sound Mixing, a Writers Guild Award for New Series, Golden Globes for Best Actor and Actress, a Satellite Award for Best Actress, and a SAG Award for Best Actor. It's never won a Best Series award in any award show.

Mad Men:
Why It Will Win- Like Parks and Recreation, a beloved series in its final season, and this one has won the series Emmy four times before. It's back as a double nominee in the Writing category again after failing to get nominated either of the two previous seasons.
Why It Will Lose- Mad Men won the series Emmy for its first four seasons. Since then, it has failed to win an Emmy in any category, with decreasing nominations every year. And no drama series has ever won five series Emmys before.

Orange is the New Black:
Why It Will Win- It has momentum. It has had new episodes more recently than any of the other nominees. The fact that those episodes are not the ones that are nominated has little effect; people were talking about Orange while voting took place.
Why It Will Lose- It has been a long time since the nominated episodes of Orange did air. And it could not win against a weaker comedy field last year, this year's drama is a much tougher competition. And like Transparent, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, and House of Cards, it needs to break the streaming ceiling.

Who Should Win- Mad Men. I actually preferred this season of Orange is the New Black to Mad Men, but it feels like Mad Men should win this.

Who Will Win- Mad Men. I have no confidence in this, and I wouldn't be surprised if its the show's only win of the night.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
The Contenders:
Louis C.K., Louie
Will Forte, Last Man on Earth
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
The Dark Horse:
William H. Macy, Shameless
The Long Shots:
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes

C.K., Cheadle, and LeBlanc are frequent also-rans in this category behind the not-nominated Jim Parsons, but the extent of Louie nominations over those for the Showtime shows make him seem closer. Anderson was a bit of a surprise nominee, so it feels like the other two newbies join frequent Emmy winner C.K. as the favorites.

Who Should Win- Jeffrey Tambor. Transparent, almost all of which I watched last night, was not my favorite series, but Tambor's performance was exceptional.

Who Will Win- Jeffrey Tambor. One of several acting categories with no incumbent gets saved with a great performance joining the class.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
The Contenders:
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
The Dark Horse:
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer
The Long Shots:
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback

The Emmys love both Louis-Dreyfus and Tomlin, but much of the talk of this year has been the Amys, with Poehler's Parks finale and Schumer's explosion in the culture. Could Schumer ride Trainwreck to an Emmy in this category the way that Melissa McCarthy rode Bridesmaids a few years ago? 

Who Should Win- Amy Poehler. The always deserving SNL alum finally got some recognition for her role as Leslie Knope at the 2014 Golden Globes, but she deserves an Emmy for this show.

Who Will Win- Julia Louis-Dreyfus. There's no reason to believe she will not win this award.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
The Contenders:
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
The Dark Horse:
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
The Long Shots:
Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

Three men could claim incumbency to this award- Odenkirk has the followup role to Bryan Cranston's 2014 winner, Daniels was the most recent of these nominees to win, in 2013, and Chandler is the only nominee to win this award in his most recent nomination, although for a different role on a different show back in 2011. Hamm has been waiting for his time, losing Cranston (x4), Chandler, Daniels, and Damian Lewis over the run of Mad Men. And hey, Liev Schreiber is here!

Who Should Win- Jon Hamm. It's time.

Who Will Win- Kevin Spacey. It feels like he's just been biding time for Cranston to go away so he can win his Emmy and let House of Cards end.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
The Contenders:
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
The Dark Horse:
Claire Danes, Homeland
The Long Shots:
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Robin Wright, House of Cards

After years of critics calling her a snub, Maslany's nomination is her win. This looked like Davis' to lose through the winter, but Empire could be inescapable. And never count out Emmy favorite Danes.

Who Should Win- Elisabeth Moss. This maybe wasn't Moss' best season, but it was the season of this.

Who Will Win- Viola Davis. The one thing that, to me, gives Davis the edge is the success of Shonda actresses in the early days of Grey's Anatomy.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
The Contenders:
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Tony Hale, Veep
The Dark Horse:
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
The Long Shots:
Adam Driver, Girls
Keegan-Michael Key, Key and Peele

Braugher is an Emmy favorite on a show starring this year's Emmy host, but the show's lack of support elsewhere makes him weak, even as a contender. This is probably Burrell vs. Hale, unless the voting block goes all in on Kimmy Schmidt.

Who Should Win- Andre Braugher. There's a pretty good reason Braugher is an Emmy favorite.

Who Will Win- Ty Burrell. Modern Family isn't going to disappear entirely.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
The Contenders:
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Allison Janney, Mom
The Dark Horse:
Jane Krakowski, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
The Long Shots:
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Gaby Hoffman, Transparent
Niecy Nash, Getting On

This probably comes down to Bowen and Janney, two Emmy favorites. But if Veep has a big night, Chlumsky could grab this, and same with Krakowski for Kimmy Schmidt. And if there's a desire to honor SNL's big 40th season, McKinnon could sneak in.

Who Should Win- Kate McKinnon. McKinnon does not dominate SNL the same way that Kristen Wiig did, but she does so many things exceptionally well.

Who Will Win- Allison Janney. Perhaps her loss in the guest acting category is a sign of things to come, but I'm not sure there is any other reason to bet against her.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
The Contenders:
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
The Dark Horse:
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
The Long Shots:
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife

Banks has the episode to submit, and should have won two years ago when he was beaten by Bobby Cannavale. If Breaking Bad's Emmy success is going to continue through to Better Call Saul, this will be the place. But Mendehlson got rave reviews, and if this is House of Cards's year Kelly could take it.

Who Should Win- Jonathan Banks. Seriously, did you see "Five-O"?

Who Will Win- Jonathan Banks. Better Call Saul is not Breaking Bad, but this is the one spot where the success will continue.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
The Contenders:
Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
The Dark Horse:
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
The Long Shots:
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey

To call Emmy favorite Baranski and defending Golden Globe winner Froggatt long shots is probably foolish. Aduba won last year, but that was as a guest star in a comedy, albeit the same role in the same show. Headey and Clarke both failed to win when they were nominated separately each of the past two years, how will two nominees from the show affect this category?

Who Should Win- Uzo Aduba. Aduba's Suzanne "Crazy Eyes" is one of the most fascinating performances on television, comedic or dramatic.

Who Will Win- Uzo Aduba. Another category where I have no confidence, let's go with the woman with the Emmy statuette for her role before.

Who Will Win The Other Awards
Outstanding Variety Talk Series: 
Who Will Win- The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series: 
Who Will Win- Inside Amy Schumer.
Outstanding Limited Series: 
Who Will Win- Olive Kitteridge.
Outstanding Reality-Competition Series: 
Who Will Win- The Amazing Race.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie: 
Who Will Win- Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie: 
Who Will Win- Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie: 
Who Will Win- Damian Lewis, Wolf Hall. 
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie: 
Who Will Win- Mo'Nique, Bessie.
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series: 
Who Will Win- The Last Man on Earth.
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series: 
Who Will Win- The Knick.
Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series: 
Who Will Win- The Colbert Report.
Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special: 
Who Will Win- Olive Kitteridge.
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series: 
Who Will Win- Transparent.
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series: 
Who Will Win- Mad Men ("Person to Person").
Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series: 
Who Will Win- The Colbert Report.
Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special: 
Who Will Win- American Crime.

2013-14 Emmy Nomination Predictions

Emmy nominations come this week, so here are my predictions in the ten major categories:

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
-Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
-Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
-Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
-Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
-Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
This Year's Picks:
-Josh Charles, The Good Wife
-Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
-Dean Norris, Breaking Bad
-Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
-Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
-John Voight, Ray Donovan
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-Jeffrey Wright, Boardwalk Empire
But I'm Probably Missing:
-Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
-John Slattery, Mad Men
And I Wish It Could Be:
-Vincent Kartheiser, Mad Men
-Jeff Perry, Scandal
And the Winner Will Be:
-Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-Morena Baccarin, Homeland
-Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
-Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
-Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
-Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
-Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
This Year's Picks:
-Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
-Betsy Brandt, Breaking Bad
-Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
-Michelle Monaghan, True Detective
-Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
-Bellamy Young, Scandal
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
But I'm Probably Missing:
-Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
-Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
And I Wish It Could Be:
-Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy
-Kiernan Shipka, Mad Men
And the Winner Will Be:
-Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-Ty Burrell, Modern Family
-Adam Driver, Girls
-Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
-Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
-Tony Hale, Veep
-Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
This Year's Picks:
-Ty Burrell, Modern Family
-Andre Braugher, Brooklyn 9-9
-Adam Driver, Girls
-Tony Hale, Veep
-Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
-Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
But I'm Probably Missing:
-Jason Biggs, Orange is the New Black
-Taran Killem, Saturday Night Live
And I Wish It Could Be:
-Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation
-Albert Tsai, Trophy Wife
And the Winner Will Be:
-Andre Braugher, Brooklyn 9-9

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
-Julie Bowen, Modern Family
-Anna Chlumsky, Veep
-Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
-Jane Lynch, Glee
-Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
-Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
This Year's Picks:
-Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
-Julie Bowen, Modern Family
-Anna Chlumsky, Veep
-Allison Janney, Mom
-Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black
-Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
But I'm Probably Missing:
-Jane Lynch, Glee
-Laura Prepon, Orange is the New Black
And I Wish It Could Be:
-Danielle Brooks, Orange is the New Black
-Cristin Milioti, How I Met Your Mother
And the Winner Will Be:
-Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black

Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
-Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
-Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
-Jon Hamm, Mad Men
-Damian Lewis, Homeland
-Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
This Year's Picks:
-Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
-Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
-Jon Hamm, Mad Men
-Woody Harrelson, True Detective
-Matthew McConaughey, True Detective
-Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-James Spader, The Blacklist
But I'm Probably Missing:
-Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
-Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
And I Wish It Could Be:
-Matthew Rhys, The Americans
And the Winner Will Be:
-Matthew McConaughey, True Detective

Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-Connie Britton, Nashville
-Claire Danes, Homeland
-Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
-Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
-Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
-Kerry Washington, Scandal
-Robin Wright, House of Cards
This Year's Picks:
-Claire Danes, Homeland
-Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
-Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
-Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
-Kerry Washington, Scandal
-Robin Wright, House of Cards
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-Connie Britton, Nashville
But I'm Probably Missing:
-Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
-Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
And I Wish It Could Be:
-Keri Russell, The Americans
And the Winner Will Be:
-Kerry Washington, Scandal

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
-Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
-Louis C.K., Louie
-Don Cheadle, House of Lies
-Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
-Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
This Year's Picks:
-Louis C.K., Louie
-Don Cheadle, House of Lies
-Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
-Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
-Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
-Andy Samberg, Brooklyn 9-9
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show
But I'm Probably Missing:
-William H. Macy, Shameless
-Robin Williams, The Crazy Ones
And I Wish It Could Be:
-Andy Daly, Review
-Bradley Whitford, Trophy Wife
And the Winner Will Be:
-Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-Laura Dern, Enlighted
-Lena Dunham, Girls
-Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
-Tina Fey, 30 Rock
-Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
-Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
This Year's Picks:
-Lena Dunham, Girls
-Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
-Ana Faris, Mom
-Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
-Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
-Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-Mindy Kaling, The Mindy Project
But I'm Probably Missing:
-Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
-Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
And I Wish It Could Be:
-Malin Akerman, Trophy Wife
-Briga Heelan, Ground Floor
And the Winner Will Be:
-Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Drama Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-Breaking Bad
-Downton Abbey
-Game of Thrones
-Homeland
-House of Cards
-Mad Men
This Year's Picks:
-Breaking Bad
-Game of Thrones
-The Good Wife
-House of Cards
-Mad Men
-True Detective
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-Downton Abbey
But I'm Probably Missing:
-Homeland
-Scandal
And I Wish It Could Be:
-The Americans*
-The Newsroom
And the Winner Will Be:
-Breaking Bad

Comedy Series
Last Year's Nominees:
-30 Rock
-The Big Bang Theory
-Girls
-Louie
-Modern Family
-Veep
This Year's Picks:
-The Big Bang Theory
-Brooklyn 9-9
-Louie
-Modern Family
-Orange is the New Black
-Veep
But Also There's That New 2% Rule So:
-Girls
But I'm Probably Missing:
-Shameless
-Silicon Valley
And I Wish It Could Be:
-Parks and Recreation
-Review
And the Winner Will Be:
-Orange is the New Black

*This post originally just listed The Newsroom as the only show here.

2013 Emmy Picks

Last year, with my Emmy picks, there were fancy pictures with nominees and last year's winners and expert picks. I also went only 6/14 on my picks. So this year, you're just getting text.

Outstanding Miniseries or Movie
Last year, it was: Game Change
This year, it should be: Top of the Lake
But it will be: Behind the Candelabra
But watch out for: Political Animals
And a nomination should have gone to: based on reputation, The Hour

Outstanding Reality Competition Program
Last year, it was: The Amazing Race
This year, it should be: The Voice
But it will be: The Amazing Race
But watch out for: Top Chef
And a nomination should have gone to: Survivor

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Modern Family- "Baby on Board"
This year, it should be: 30 Rock- "Hogcock"/"Last Lunch"
But it will be: Modern Family- "Arrested"
But watch out for: 30 Rock- "Hogcock"/"Last Lunch"
And a nomination should have gone to: The Office- "Finale"

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Boardwalk Empire- "To the Lost"
This year, it should be: Homeland- "Q&A"
But it will be: Homeland- "Q&A"
But watch out for: House of Cards- "Chapter 1"
And a nomination should have gone to: Mad Men- "For Immediate Release"

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Louie- "Pregnant"
This year, it should be: 30 Rock- "Last Lunch"
But it will be: 30 Rock- "Last Lunch"
But watch out for: Louie- "Daddy's Girlfriend, Part 1"
And a nomination should have gone to: Parks and Recreation- "Leslie and Ben"

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Homeland- "Pilot"
This year, it should be: Homeland- "Q&A"
But it will be: Homeland- "Q&A"
But watch out for: Game of Thrones- "The Rains of Castamere"
And a nomination should have gone to: Mad Men- "In Care Of"

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
This year, it should be: Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
But it will be: Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
But watch out for: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
And a nomination should have gone to: Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation; Simon Helberg, The Big Bang Theory

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Julie Bowen, Modern Family
This year, it should be: Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
But it will be: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
But watch out for: Julie Bowen, Modern Family
And a nomination should have gone to: Jenna Fischer, The Office; Carly Chaikin, Suburgatory

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
This year, it should be: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
But it will be: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
But watch out for: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
And a nomination should have gone to: Vincent Kartheiser, Mad Men; Guillermo Diaz, Scandal

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
This year, it should be: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
But it will be: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
But watch out for: Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
And a nomination should have gone to: Bellamy Young, Scandal; Monica Potter, Parenthood

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
This year, it should be: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
But it will be: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
But watch out for: Louis C.K., Louie
And a nomination should have gone to: Jake Johnson, New Girl; Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
This year, it should be: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
But it will be: Tina Fey, 30 Rock
But watch out for: Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep
And a nomination should have gone to: Zooey Deschanel, New Girl; Sutton Foster, Bunheads

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Damian Lewis, Homeland
This year, it should be: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
But it will be: Damian Lewis, Homeland
But watch out for: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
And a nomination should have gone to: Matthew Rhys, The Americans; Johnny Lee Miller, Elementary

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Last year, it was: Claire Danes, Homeland
This year, it should be: Claire Danes, Homeland
But it will be: Claire Danes, Homeland
But watch out for: Kerry Washington, Scandal
And a nomination should have gone to: Kerry Russell, The Americans; Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

Outstanding Comedy Series
Last year, it was: Modern Family
This year, it should be: 30 Rock
But it will be: Modern Family
But watch out for: 30 Rock
And a nomination should have gone to: New Girl; Parks and Recreation

Outstanding Drama Series
Last year, it was: Homeland
This year, it should be: Mad Men
But it will be: Game of Thrones
But watch out for: Homeland
And a nomination should have gone to: The Americans; Orphan Black

Super-Quick Mid-Bar Review Emmy Nomination Predictions

Hey all. I haven't thought these out as well as I would like do to bar studying, and it's possible I'll have some nominee picks that didn't submit themselves (I did look at the list when it first came out), but here you go, on the big 10 categories, with nominee picks alphabetized:

Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men

But It'll Probably Be: Boardwalk Empire
But I Really Hope For: Scandal

Drama Lead Actress
Glen Close, Damages
Claire Danes, Homeland
Julianne Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Keri Russell, The Americans
Kerry Washington, Scandal

But It'll Probably Be: Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
But I Really Hope For: Lucy Liu, Elementary

Drama Lead Actor
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

But It'll Probably Be: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
But I Really Hope For: Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Drama Supporting Actress
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
January Jones, Mad Men
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

But It'll Probably Be: Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
But I Really Hope For: Kiernan Shipka, Mad Men

Drama Supporting Actor
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Noah Emmerich, The Americans
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
John Slattery, Mad Men
Dan Stevens, Downton Abbey

But It'll Probably Be: Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
But I Really Hope For: Guillermo Diaz, Scandal

Comedy Series
30 Rock
Arrested Development
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family

But It'll Probably Be: Veep
But I Really Hope For: New Girl

Comedy Lead Actor
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Louie C.K., Louie
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

But It'll Probably Be: Don Cheadle, House of Lies
But I Really Hope For: Jake Johnson, New Girl

Comedy Lead Actress
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

But It'll Probably Be: Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
But I Really Hope For: Sutton Foster, Bunheads

Comedy Supporting Actor
Will Arnett, Arrested Development
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

But It'll Probably Be: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
But I Really Hope For: Rainn Wilson, The Office

Comedy Supporting Actress
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Jessica Walter, Arrested Development
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie

But It'll Probably Be: Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
But I Really Hope For: Jenna Fischer, The Office

2012 Emmy Picks

Here are my picks for who should and will win in 15 categories at tonight's Emmy Awards. Also included are the picks of Brett Alazraki, and 11 television critics with the awards they publicly picked. Click on any of them for a larger view. (except for Miniseries/Movie which seems to not work. I picked Sherlock as should win and American Horror Story to win)