The Office Top Tens

It's time for end of the season top ten lists, but with the bar exam dominating my life, those won't come until August. Instead, here are 5 top ten lists related to The Office which, ideally, would have been posted around the time that finale aired, but what can you do.

2013 MLB Predictions

My 2012 predictions did not go very well (spoiler alert- neither Brian Wilson nor Mariano Rivera led their respective leagues, or teams for that matter, in saves) but that doesn't mean I won't try again. Here we go:

NL
East
1. Nationals
2. Braves*
3. Mets
4. Phillies
5. Marlins

Central
1. Reds
2. Cardinals
3. Brewers
4. Pirates
5. Cubs

West
1. Giants
2. Diamondbacks*
3. Dodgers
4. Rockies
5. Padres

*-Wildcard

NLWC

Braves over Diamondbacks

NLDS
Nationals over Braves

Reds over Giants
NLCS
Reds over Nationals

Awards
MVP: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Rookie of the Year: Shelby Miller, Cardinals
Manager of the Year: Kirk Gibson, Diamondbacks

Leaders
Batting Average: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Homeruns: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
RBI: Joey Votto, Reds
Stolen Bases: Ben Revere, Phillies
Wins: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
ERA: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Strikeouts: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Saves: Jonathon Papelbon, Phillies
  

AL
East
1. Rays
2. Blue Jays*
3. Orioles*
4. Yankees
5. Red Sox

Central
1. Tigers
2. Royals
3. Indians
4. White Sox
5. Twins

West
1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. Athletics
4. Mariners

5. Astros

*-Wildcard

ALWC

Blue Jays over Orioles

ALDS
Blue Jays over Tigers

Rays over Angels
ALCS

Rays over Blue Jays

Awards
MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
Cy Young: Yu Darvish, Rangers
Rookie of the Year: Jurickson Profar, Rangers
Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Rays

Leaders
Batting Average: Mike Trout, Angels
Homeruns: Prince Fielder, Tigers
RBI: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Stolen Bases: Michael Bourn, Indians
Wins: Yu Darvish, Rangers
ERA: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Strikeouts: Justin Verlander, Tigers
Saves: Joe Nathan, Rangers

World Series
Rays over Reds
World Series MVP
David Price, Rays

Managers Fired During/After Season
Charlie Manuel, Phillies (retirement)

Clint Hurdle, Pirates

Don Mattingly, Dodgers

Walt Weiss, Rockies

Eric Wedge, Mariners

2013 Oscar Predictions

Like last year, I saw all of the Academy Awards best picture nominees. I also saw a number of other movies, which left me missing only three of the films nominated in the big eight awards (Best Actress nominee Naomi Watts' The Impossible, Best Supporting Actress nominee Helen Hunt's The Sessions, and Best Writing- Original Screenplay nominee Moonrise Kingdom). To start off, here are my opinions on the nominees in each of those eight categories (when I didn't see the film, I did not rank the nominee).

Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Life of Pi are all directing achievements, and Silver Linings Playbook is all about the actors. Lincoln was not my favorite film, and it was certainly slow in spots, but it was also exceptionally well crafted by one of the greatest American writers alive.

This is a bit of a strange category- neither Flight or Moonrise Kingdom are Best Picture nominees, and neither Zero Dark Thirty or Amour are films that rely more on directing and acting than a great script. That leaves Django which is deserving of a few awards. This one may end up its best shot.

My number 1 director was Zero Dark Thirty's Kathryn Bigelow; she's not here. My number 2 director was Argo's Ben Affleck; he's not here. You could have presented me the category with Bigelow, Affleck, Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), and P.T. Anderson (The Master) and I'd be happy. Instead we have these five. None would be a terrible choice, but none are the best either. I went with Zeitlin who, in Beasts of the Southern Wild, directed a 6 year-old lead through a vast array of adventures.

This one is a runaway for Hathaway. There is a decent recent history for supporting actresses in musicals- Jennifer Hudson won for Dreamgirls in 2006 and Catherine Zeta-Jones won for Chicago in 2002, while Queen Latifah and Penelope Cruz also received nominations in this category for their musical work. The fact that Hathaway is only in a small portion of the film is an argument people make, but it's a silly one; Beatrice Straight won the supporting actress Oscar for Network in 1977 with a grand total of 5:40 in screen time. In years without this strong a candidate (like last year), Field and Adams would both be worthy winners. Weaver, on the other hand, had no place getting nominated. She wasn't bad in Silver Linings Playbook at all, just not memorable.

This is a fascinating category with, for the first time ever, all five nominees being former winners. Two of the nominees (Waltz in Django and Hoffman in The Master) are pretty close to being leads, while Arkin in Argo is close to being a cameo. I thought Waltz was the strongest, but I'd be pretty much okay with any of these winning.

I was pretty set with Silver Linings Playbook's Lawrence ahead of Amour's Riva for 2nd since watching Amour a couple weeks ago. While I think I liked Lawrence's performance a bit more, I think Riva's was probably objectively better. That said, neither of them hold a candle to Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty which was my favorite performance in a film in a long, long time.

This is another category where none of the nominees are weak, but Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln is great at a level that the others are not (and likely could never be; we're talking about Abraham Lincoln after all). That said, Washington carried Flight in a way that few actors could. And while I have Cooper at the bottom, he showed a side of himself, a side that included award discussion-worthy acting, in Silver Linings Playbook that I had never seen from him before. I assume it will carry over to The Hangover Part III.*

*I do not expect this to carry over to The Hangover Part III.

So I've gone over my feelings on all of these quite a bit on Twitter, so just some brief bullets:

-I've basically had Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty as 1 and 1a since seeing both and they're both movies I genuinely love. I went with ZDT as 1 just because I admit I have a pretty strong pro-Les Mis bias that would have made me love the film even if it was Rent quality (it isn't).

-All of my top 6 films would probably be in my top 2 (along with The Descendants) last year. I think Django is a great movie (and 45 more minutes of movie), but just not the same level as the five above it.

-I didn't dislike any of these movies. I don't feel the need to necessarily see any of my bottom 3 again, but none of them were difficult to get through in the way Tree of Life was. Man, Tree of Life was awful.

-Top 2 are a tier, Argo is a step below them, then a big gap, then the next 3, then another big gap and the last three.

-All 9 are impressive in their own ways, and I expect all 9 to walk away with at least one award tomorrow. Has that happened before?

So who do I THINK will win? Well here are my picks for who I want and who I predict, along with a slew of expert picks for the big 8 awards (click to see it larger):

And here are my (less educated) picks on the rest of the categories:

What do you think? Who do you pick?

AIRS Show Ranker

As you may no, I have done some statistical work for ThisWasTV.com including the creation of a stat called AIRS. You can learn more about AIRS here, but for now I'm looking at possibly adding another element to it, which is a public ranking. There are two poll questions below (which you can also fill out using your full browser screen here). The first question asks you to rate 500 shows. You can move on to the second question as long as you do 20, do as many as you want, and pick and choose which you want to do. The second is a ranking of all 500. You can completely bypass that, or rank the shows if you have time. Thank you so much!

Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey, the world's leading questionnaire tool.

Farewell to 30 Rock: Top 100 Episodes and Characters

An admission- I didn't watch 30 Rock when it started. In fact, I was a Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip partisan. For Chanukah 2008, my parents got me the DVDs of the first 2 seasons of 30 Rock. I watched them all within a week (second admission- I watch both seasons again in their completion this past Friday through Sunday). While it has certainly had its ups and downs, I strongly believe that within five years it will be obvious that it will be on the Mount Rushmore of the recent-to-current single camera era sitcoms (along with The Office, Arrested Development, and either Community or Parks and Rec or something we haven't seen yet), and not uncommon to rank it on an all time comedy Mount Rushmore (right now I'd probably say I Love Lucy, Cheers, Seinfeld, and The Cosby Show, but I have admittedly not seen enough All in the Family or M*A*S*H or most pre-1980s shows). But this week, 30 Rock ends it's seven year run, filled with awards, cameos, classic episodes, live shows, insane character names, cutaways, and low ratings. To celebrate, here are my top 100 episodes and top 100 characters. Quite honestly, there is very little difference between what ranks 1 and what ranks 25. If I started over without looking at this list, it's very possible the two lists would bear no resemblance to each other. I did not look at any other 30 Rock rankings lists, although I did consult AVClub's and TVWoP's grades for the episodes. I made liberal use of Wikipedia and IMDB, and any misspellings are likely their fault. Feel free to add your lists or other 30 Rock memories in the comments.

2013 Golden Globe Predictions

The Golden Globes are this Sunday. There are 25 categories in film and television, and with apologies to Original Score, Original Song, Animated Film, and Foreign Language Film, here are my picks for 21 of them!

Film

Motion Picture- Drama

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Les Miserables

Moonrise Kingdom

Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Silver Linings Playbook

Actor in a Motion Picture- Drama

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Richard Gere, Arbitrage

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

Actress in a Motion Picture- Drama

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Actor in a Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy

Jack Black, Bernie

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbooks

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

Actress in a Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy

Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Maggie Smith, Quartet

Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Alan Arkin, Argo

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Director of a Motion Picture

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Screenplay of a Motion Picture

Chris Terrio, Argo

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Tony Kushner, Lincoln

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Television

Series- Drama

Breaking Bad

Boardwalk Empire

Downton Abbey

Homeland

The Newsroom

Series- Musical or Comedy

The Big Bang Theory

Episodes

Girls

Modern Family

Smash

Actor in a Television Series- Drama

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Damian Lewis, Homeland

Actress in a Television Series- Drama

Connie Britton, Nashville

Glenn Close, Damages

Claire Danes, Homeland

Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Actor in a Television Series- Musical or Comedy

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Don Cheadle, House of Lies

Louis C.K., Louie

Matt LeBlanc, Episodes

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Actress in a Television Series- Musical or Comedy

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl

Lena Dunham, Girls

Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Actor in a Miniseries or Television Film

Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys

Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock

Woody Harrelson, Game Change

Toby Jones, The Girl

Clive Owen, Hemingway & Gellhorn

Actress in a Miniseries or Television Film

Nicole Kidman, Hemingway & Gellhorn

Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum

Sienna Miller, The Girl

Julianne Moore, Game Change

Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals

Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film

Max Greenfield, New Girl

Ed Harris, Game Change

Danny Huston, Magic City

Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film

Hayden Panettiere, Nashville

Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

Sarah Paulson, Game Change

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Miniseries or Television Film

Game Change

The Girl

The Hour

Hatfields & McCoys

Political Animals

Some Thoughts on Mike Piazza and the Hall of Fame

I wrote last month that 1998, the season I became a baseball fan, was also the year the team I root for traded for Mike Piazza. 

Today the Hall of Fame voting results were announced, and Mike Piazza, along with every other player, did not receive the requisite 75%. Here are some thoughts:

-Mike Piazza is my favorite player ever, in any sport. He is the greatest player I have ever rooted for. I've been weirdly lucky with this- despite never having a championship during my lifetime among the 4 teams I root for, I've gotten a Hall of Fame center in Patrick Ewing, a Hall of Fame running back in Curtis Martin, and the greatest hitting catcher of all time.

-Let me say that again. The greatest hitting catcher of all time. Not "one of the top five hitting catchers of all time." Not "perhaps the best hitting catcher of all time." The singular, unquestionable, greatest hitting catcher of all time. Number 1.

-And he's not going to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Look, I knew this was coming before today. Every survey of voters, every poll, it showed Piazza getting around 60%. He wound up with 57.8%. This was 4th most on the ballot, and 2nd most for players on their first ballot. This is actually not a bad number for a first ballot. As Joe Posnanski showed this week, every player who had 50% or more on their first ballot has eventually been elected. And Yogi Berra and Gary Carter, two other great New York catchers, also missed on their first ballot. Mike Piazza will be in the Hall of Fame, perhaps even in 2014 (though with the players being added on that ballot, it's not a lock). But he is so clearly a Hall of Famer, not letting him in on the first ballot is absurd.

-This isn't a small Hall vs. big Hall question. Even in the smallest of Hall of Fames, Mike Piazza is a Hall of Famer.

-It's not a steroid issue either. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have faced legal prosecution for their lying about steroid use. Both were named in the Mitchell Report. Mark McGwire admitted to using steroids. Rafael Palmeiro failed an MLB steroid test. Mike Piazza did none of those things. When the Mitchell Report was released online, the first thing I did after opening it was hit CTRL+F and search for "Piazza." There were 0 hits. There has never been any legitimate steroid claims about Mike Piazza.

-You know what claims there were against Mike Piazza? Homosexuality. This is an actual story. In May of 2002, Mike Piazza had to hold a press conference to deny random rumors that he was gay. But there were never rumors that he used steroids.

-The extent of the steroid claims against Piazza are an off-the-record conversation with an unnamed source, and back acne. Seriously. Back acne.

-I laid out the statistical argument for Piazza on that last post. There numerous. There is no way that somebody who knows baseball can look at his numbers and think "I don't know. Not really Hall of Fame to me." It's not possible. It's a joke.

-Perhaps there are a number of writers, like ESPN's Adam Rubin and Fox's Ken Rosenthal, will switch their vote just because they don't vote for players on the first ballot. This is idiotic. A player is either a hall of famer or not a hall of famer, on the 1st or 2nd or 15th ballot. The only reason to switch a vote is if you literally run out of space on your ballot. That's something that might happen over the next few years, but it was not the case for either Rubin or Rosenthal this year.

-The Mets have yet to retire Piazza's 31 or put him in the team Hall of Fame. The rumors have always been that they were waiting for his Cooperstown induction, which is a fairly common practice. Still, with the All Star Game at CitiField this summer, I sincerely hope they substantially honor him this season.

-I took this too personally. As if it's an attack on New York or East Coast bias or the Mets or my fanhood. And obviously it's not. But this does hurt. I really hope he is voted in in 2014.

Somewhat Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions

Last year, I made "Completely Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions." This year I've actually seen 5 of the likely nomination-heavy films, so they're not quite as baseless. So here we go. Again, there will be 5 nominees in each of the acting categories, and between 5 to 10 best picture nominees.

Supporting Actress

My Picks:
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Amy Adams, The Master
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Who I Probably Missed:
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Samantha Barks, Les Miserables


Supporting Actor

My Picks:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Who I Probably Missed:
Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Woody Harrelson, The Hunger Games


Best Actress

My Picks:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Who I Probably Missed:
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Who I Wish Had a Shot:

Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect

Best Actor

My Picks:
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight

Who I Probably Missed:
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Who I Wish Had a Shot:

Ben Affleck, Argo

Best Picture
(my guess is eight films are nominated, but I've put the next two I'd guess in parenthesis after those eight)

My Picks:
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
(Moonrise Kingdom)
(Skyfall)

Who I Probably Missed:
Amour and The Master

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
The Avengers

Television Top Tens of 2012: Hottest Actress

Now comes the most serious of lists, the top ten hot actresses of television in 2012. Joining me in objectifying television stars is Wesley Ambrecht who you can follow on Twitter here and read (very occasional) blog posts from here.

Some rules:
-To pick an actress, you have to, at least occasionally, watch the show.

-Every actress picked is of age. A couple play characters still in high school, but they are all actually of age. Sarah Hyland and Jane Levy are both 22. 

-The Katrina Bowden Rule: the actress must appear in at least half of the episodes of the show that aired in 2012. Katrina Bowden was not in 50% of the 2012 30 Rock episodes.

-Some random ineligibles- Wizards of Waverly Place had 1 episode in 2012, but that wasn't enough to grant Selena Gomez eligibility. Meanwhile, while Lyndsy Fonseca was eligible for Nikita, her HIMYM footage is all from years ago, and she was not eligible for that.

-No reality. I get it, the contestants on The Bachelor are all attractive. Who cares?

-The lists are split for half hour shows and hour long shows.

-And one last point- attractiveness is inherently subjective. These lists aren't meant to insult anyone (well, maybe Cloris Leachman). Feel free to post your lists in the comments.

Television Top Tens of 2012: Best Series

Here we are, the final tv top ten list of 2012, best series. The top episodes list is here, and the top new series list is here.

REMINDER: Lists are subjective. I ranked what I like. I don't watch Breaking Bad or Game of Thrones or The Good Wife or Boardwalk Empire or The Vampire Diaries or Downton Abbey. I don't watch any Fox Animated series or anything on Adult Swim. I don't watch any CSI or NCIS or Law & Order or anything that's title starts with Tyler Perry's. I don't watch anything on USA or CW or TNT or Starz. So if a show isn't included, it's probably because I didn't watch it, or because I didn't like it as much as the shows I listed. But feel free to ask away in the comments.

And with that, let's do this. Let's start with Brett Alazraki's Top Ten list.

There. Yell at him about ranking The Newsroom, it didn't quite crack my list. And now here's mine. Honorable Mentions are, again, kinda alphabetical.

I'm not going to breakdown each individually, because at this point I've pretty much written about each of these shows, so just a bunch of bullet points.

-The top four were incredibly close. I finalized this list only a couple days after what I thought was an incredibly strong Homeland finale, but on reflection I may swap it with Mad Men. But it's really close. Each of those four were in the top spot at one point while making this list.

-At the end of the day, while I think it's fair to say Parks and Rec is the better show than Happy Endings because of the world it has built and the deep emotional connections created in that world, there is no show I look forward to watching each week more than Happy Endings.

-The entire top nine are the same shows, albeit in a different order, as my top nine for the 2011-12 television season. I did not look at that list until I had finished this one. There's no good reason why Awake, which was #10 then, is not an honorable mention while Cougar Town, which has also not aired any new episodes since then, is. That's just kinda a mistake.

-Number 11 was Glee, and the two veteran shows that now share a time-slot went back and forth for the 10 slot week to week. Both Glee and Grey's had excellent falls and winters, and Grey's spring wasn't anywhere near as bad as some of Glee, even if it didn't reach the same heights, but that's a coin flip.

-Suburgatory probably gets as high as 7 if not for the Alicia Silverstone episodes. At its best it can be a top 5 show, if it ever reaches that best consistently.

-The top 4 were my clear top tier. New Girl was my clear #5. 30 Rock and Community were my next tier, and Parenthood and Suburgatory after that. Grey's, Glee, The Newsroom, and Cougar Town all received consideration for 10th, along with picking a specific arc or series of episodes from either (or both) The Daily Show and The Colbert Report.

And that wraps this up. I might do some silly top 10s next week, but no promises. Feel free to comment/complain/laud in the comments or on twitter, and have a happy new year!